Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Up (77%) · Up at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 77%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$79.7

Smart Money Entry

81.2¢ → 99.7¢

+23% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,096

Combined PnL+$79.34

Down3 traders

Total Value$10.26

Total Shares35

Combined PnL+$0.37

Up — 77%Down — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 96.6¢	$620.17	$614.54	-$5.63	49% 3753-3853 (7606)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$594	$596.7	+$2.7	98% 4700-98 (4798)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50.8¢	$509.69	$501.46	-$2.55	54% 4416-3739 (8155)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 55.4¢	$93.59	$168.23	+$74.64	49% 2596-2668 (5264)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Upavg 95¢	$95	$99.05	+$4.05	57% 4084-3020 (7104)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 87¢	$30.45	$34.67	+$4.22	51% 2638-2500 (5138)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 54.7¢	$26.57	$25.74	-$0.83	44% 1442-1799 (3241)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 48¢	$22.32	$19.99	+$3.27	44% 2501-3236 (5737)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 83.5¢	$37.93	$12.26	-$0.44	54% 2814-2386 (5200)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 47¢	$8.93	$8.84	-$0.09	48% 2635-2900 (5535)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 47¢	$8.46	$8.73	+$0.27	47% 2539-2808 (5347)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 11.5¢	$1.38	$1.5	+$0.12	43% 2221-2992 (5213)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.05	$0.03	-$0.02	36% 1532-2761 (4293)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$620.17

Value

$614.54

PnL

-$5.63

Record

49%

3753-3853 (7606)

hoodquant

Invested

$594

Value

$596.7

PnL

+$2.7

Record

98%

4700-98 (4798)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$509.69

Value

$501.46

PnL

-$2.55

Record

54%

4416-3739 (8155)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$93.59

Value

$168.23

PnL

+$74.64

Record

49%

2596-2668 (5264)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Invested

$95

Value

$99.05

PnL

+$4.05

Record

57%

4084-3020 (7104)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$30.45

Value

$34.67

PnL

+$4.22

Record

51%

2638-2500 (5138)

13897651<$100

Invested

$26.57

Value

$25.74

PnL

-$0.83

Record

44%

1442-1799 (3241)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$22.32

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$3.27

Record

44%

2501-3236 (5737)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$37.93

Value

$12.26

PnL

-$0.44

Record

54%

2814-2386 (5200)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$8.93

Value

$8.84

PnL

-$0.09

Record

48%

2635-2900 (5535)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.46

Value

$8.73

PnL

+$0.27

Record

47%

2539-2808 (5347)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.5

PnL

+$0.12

Record

43%

2221-2992 (5213)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.02

Record

36%

1532-2761 (4293)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.