Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
14
Down 64%
1 arb excluded
$1.8K
$-1.5K
Smart Money Signal
9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.9¢ | $820.24 | $829.47 | +$9.23 | 98% 4700-98 (4798) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Downavg 36.7¢ | $631.52 | — | -$631.52 | 49% 3753-3853 (7606) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.3¢ | $517.99 | $500 | +$3.8 | 54% 4416-3739 (8155) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.3¢ | $251.28 | — | -$248.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.4¢ | $246.79 | $500 | +$252 | |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 40.6¢ | $194.15 | $339.28 | +$164.25 | 49% 2596-2668 (5264) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 88.8¢ | $146.47 | $92.5 | -$24.93 | 51% 2638-2500 (5138) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR | Downavg 50.9¢ | $374.42 | — | -$291.26 | 57% 4084-3020 (7104) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 75.6¢ | $95.04 | $35.06 | -$6.3 | 54% 2814-2386 (5200) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Downavg 28.7¢ | $28.96 | — | -$28.96 | 44% 1442-1799 (3241) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 63.9¢ | $34.53 | — | -$34.53 | 44% 2501-3236 (5737) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $53.65 | — | -$50.42 | 47% 2539-2808 (5347) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 49.2¢ | $4.84 | $9.84 | +$5 | 51% 2283-2160 (4443) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 5¢ | $1.08 | — | -$1.08 | 50% 2955-2954 (5909) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR | Downavg 90¢ | $550.73 | — | -$550.73 | 43% 2221-2992 (5213) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.1 | — | -$0.1 | 36% 1532-2761 (4293) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 34¢ | $10.2 | — | -$10.2 | 48% 2616-2848 (5464) |
Invested
$820.24
Value
$829.47
PnL
+$9.23
Record
98%
4700-98 (4798)
Invested
$631.52
Value
—
PnL
-$631.52
Record
49%
3753-3853 (7606)
Invested
$517.99
Value
$500
PnL
+$3.8
Record
54%
4416-3739 (8155)
Both legs:
Invested
$194.15
Value
$339.28
PnL
+$164.25
Record
49%
2596-2668 (5264)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$146.47
Value
$92.5
PnL
-$24.93
Record
51%
2638-2500 (5138)
Invested
$374.42
Value
—
PnL
-$291.26
Record
57%
4084-3020 (7104)
Invested
$95.04
Value
$35.06
PnL
-$6.3
Record
54%
2814-2386 (5200)
Invested
$28.96
Value
—
PnL
-$28.96
Record
44%
1442-1799 (3241)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$34.53
Value
—
PnL
-$34.53
Record
44%
2501-3236 (5737)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$53.65
Value
—
PnL
-$50.42
Record
47%
2539-2808 (5347)
Invested
$4.84
Value
$9.84
PnL
+$5
Record
51%
2283-2160 (4443)
Invested
$1.08
Value
—
PnL
-$1.08
Record
50%
2955-2954 (5909)
Invested
$550.73
Value
—
PnL
-$550.73
Record
43%
2221-2992 (5213)
Invested
$0.1
Value
—
PnL
-$0.1
Record
36%
1532-2761 (4293)
Invested
$10.2
Value
—
PnL
-$10.2
Record
48%
2616-2848 (5464)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $829.47
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
Up — $339.28
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $92.5
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm2
Up — $35.06
13897651
CTRDown — $0
G-Penis-Monster
CTRDown — $0
ohioism
CTRDown — $0