Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (57%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Up (67%) · Up at 43¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Up43¢Down57¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$60.53

Smart Money Entry

60.3¢ → 42.5¢

-30% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Down 57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up43%

Down57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$171.32

Total Shares256

Combined PnL-$28.23

Up8 traders

Total Value$182.47

Total Shares356

Combined PnL-$32.3

Down — 33%Up — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 36.4¢	$592.43	$727.28	+$134.86	49% 3718-3826 (7544)
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.4¢	$312.34	$364.96	+$52.63
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.4¢	$280.09	$362.32	+$82.23
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.8¢	$520.38	$496.09	-$6.24	54% 4385-3706 (8091)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.6¢	$248.07	$301.35	+$52.55
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.8¢	$252.13	$194.74	-$58.79
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 53.8¢	$105.18	$112.33	+$7.16	58% 4049-2979 (7028)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 62.6¢	$122.25	$90.75	-$31.5	49% 2590-2661 (5251)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 53¢	$58.21	$60.28	+$4.69	45% 1433-1784 (3217)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53¢	$35.5	$35.81	+$0.31
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.3¢	$20.14	$24.46	+$4.37
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Downavg 61.2¢	$59.35	$54.19	-$5.15	54% 2796-2370 (5166)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.2¢	$30.6	$28.99	-$1.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.9¢	$28.75	$25.2	-$3.55
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 66¢	$85	$32.93	-$23.72	60% 4351-2951 (7302)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 55.2¢	$110.97	$25	-$11.6	51% 2628-2476 (5104)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Upavg 70¢	$21	$20.25	-$0.75	51% 4983-4719 (9702)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Upavg 70¢	$21	$20.25	-$0.75	52% 1731-1604 (3335)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 70¢	$21	$20.25	-$0.75	52% 1719-1616 (3335)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 46¢	$13.8	$13.95	+$0.15	48% 2593-2832 (5425)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 42¢	$12.6	$12.75	+$0.15	48% 2621-2880 (5501)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 22¢	$1.32	$2.55	+$1.23	43% 2210-2957 (5167)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 36¢	$1.8	$1.72	-$0.08	47% 2520-2793 (5313)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 53¢	$1.13	$1.06	-$0.06	50% 1010-1000 (2010)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$592.43

Value

$727.28

PnL

+$134.86

Record

49%

3718-3826 (7544)

Both legs:

Up$312.3436.4¢+$52.63

Down$280.0944.4¢+$82.23

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$520.38

Value

$496.09

PnL

-$6.24

Record

54%

4385-3706 (8091)

Both legs:

Down$248.0750.6¢+$52.55

Up$252.1349.8¢-$58.79

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$105.18

Value

$112.33

PnL

+$7.16

Record

58%

4049-2979 (7028)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$122.25

Value

$90.75

PnL

-$31.5

Record

49%

2590-2661 (5251)

13897651ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$58.21

Value

$60.28

PnL

+$4.69

Record

45%

1433-1784 (3217)

Both legs:

Invested

$59.35

Value

$54.19

PnL

-$5.15

Record

54%

2796-2370 (5166)

Both legs:

Invested

$85

Value

$32.93

PnL

-$23.72

Record

60%

4351-2951 (7302)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$110.97

Value

$25

PnL

-$11.6

Record

51%

2628-2476 (5104)

bosonaCTR<$100

Invested

$21

Value

$20.25

PnL

-$0.75

Record

51%

4983-4719 (9702)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Invested

$21

Value

$20.25

PnL

-$0.75

Record

52%

1731-1604 (3335)

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$21

Value

$20.25

PnL

-$0.75

Record

52%

1719-1616 (3335)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$13.8

Value

$13.95

PnL

+$0.15

Record

48%

2593-2832 (5425)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$12.6

Value

$12.75

PnL

+$0.15

Record

48%

2621-2880 (5501)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$1.32

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$1.23

Record

43%

2210-2957 (5167)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.72

PnL

-$0.08

Record

47%

2520-2793 (5313)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.06

PnL

-$0.06

Record

50%

1010-1000 (2010)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 43%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Down 57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.2%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$121.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

221.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.