Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Up β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
π
Won
13
Up 69%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
-$76.81
Smart Money Signal
9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.2Β’ | $503.78 | $505.48 | +$4.8 | 54% 4385-3706 (8091) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50.2Β’ | $253.78 | $505.48 | +$251.7 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50Β’ | $245 | β | -$246.9 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99Β’ | $296.03 | $299.02 | +$2.99 | 98% 4661-98 (4759) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 84.6Β’ | $228.83 | $270.48 | +$41.65 | 49% 2590-2661 (5251) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 84Β’ | $193.52 | $140 | -$45.22 | 49% 3718-3826 (7544) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Upavg 84Β’ | $105 | $125 | +$20 | 58% 4049-2979 (7028) |
![]() Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 89.7Β’ | $66.6 | $55 | -$11.6 | 51% 2628-2476 (5104) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 78Β’ | $21.62 | $27.72 | +$6.1 | 60% 4351-2951 (7302) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 72.3Β’ | $31.97 | $24 | +$8.26 | 54% 2796-2370 (5166) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 85Β’ | $8.5 | $10 | +$1.5 | 48% 2621-2880 (5501) |
![]() ohioism<$100 | Upavg 80Β’ | $5.2 | $6.5 | +$1.3 | 47% 2520-2793 (5313) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Downavg 14Β’ | $1.36 | β | -$1.36 | 45% 1433-1784 (3217) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 16.3Β’ | $99.78 | β | -$99.78 | 43% 2210-2957 (5167) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1Β’ | $0.05 | β | -$0.05 | 36% 1528-2731 (4259) |
![]() BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Downavg 12Β’ | $0.6 | β | -$0.6 | 70% 1893-822 (2715) |
Invested
$503.78
Value
$505.48
PnL
+$4.8
Record
54%
4385-3706 (8091)
Both legs:
Invested
$296.03
Value
$299.02
PnL
+$2.99
Record
98%
4661-98 (4759)
Invested
$228.83
Value
$270.48
PnL
+$41.65
Record
49%
2590-2661 (5251)
Invested
$193.52
Value
$140
PnL
-$45.22
Record
49%
3718-3826 (7544)
Invested
$105
Value
$125
PnL
+$20
Record
58%
4049-2979 (7028)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$66.6
Value
$55
PnL
-$11.6
Record
51%
2628-2476 (5104)
Invested
$21.62
Value
$27.72
PnL
+$6.1
Record
60%
4351-2951 (7302)
Invested
$31.97
Value
$24
PnL
+$8.26
Record
54%
2796-2370 (5166)
Invested
$8.5
Value
$10
PnL
+$1.5
Record
48%
2621-2880 (5501)
ohioism<$100Invested
$5.2
Value
$6.5
PnL
+$1.3
Record
47%
2520-2793 (5313)
Invested
$1.36
Value
β
PnL
-$1.36
Record
45%
1433-1784 (3217)
Invested
$99.78
Value
β
PnL
-$99.78
Record
43%
2210-2957 (5167)
Invested
$0.05
Value
β
PnL
-$0.05
Record
36%
1528-2731 (4259)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$0.6
Value
β
PnL
-$0.6
Record
70%
1893-822 (2715)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage β excluded
hoodquant
Up β $299.02
uninformedfloww
Up β $270.48
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up β $140
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Up β $125

Polkadot-Frog
Up β $55
aaa221
Up β $27.72
ply-pm2
Up β $24
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up β $10

ohioism
Up β $6.5