Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Down 64%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
-$143.5
Smart Money Signal
9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $526.95 | $500 | -$11.7 | 54% 4350-3681 (8031) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51¢ | $255.01 | $500 | +$243.3 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.3¢ | $251.67 | — | -$255 | |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 51.1¢ | $141.06 | $276 | +$134.94 | 58% 4041-2969 (7010) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $164.34 | $166 | +$1.66 | 98% 4630-97 (4727) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 48.1¢ | $267.86 | — | -$267.86 | 49% 3684-3801 (7485) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 65.3¢ | $31.64 | $29.99 | -$1.65 | 54% 2777-2356 (5133) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 69.6¢ | $19.48 | $28 | +$8.52 | 44% 2472-3195 (5667) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $26.57 | — | -$22.31 | 45% 1425-1776 (3201) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $14.76 | $18 | +$3.24 | 70% 1877-817 (2694) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 58¢ | $15.81 | $27.26 | +$11.45 | 60% 4328-2942 (7270) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $15 | — | -$11.17 | 51% 2609-2462 (5071) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $6.93 | $7 | +$0.07 | 50% 2915-2911 (5826) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $5 | +$2.45 | 48% 2582-2816 (5398) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 2.2¢ | $2.85 | — | -$2.85 | 43% 2188-2930 (5118) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5 | $2 | +$0.5 | 51% 2246-2136 (4382) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.5 | — | -$0.5 | 36% 1518-2714 (4232) |
Invested
$526.95
Value
$500
PnL
-$11.7
Record
54%
4350-3681 (8031)
Both legs:
Invested
$141.06
Value
$276
PnL
+$134.94
Record
58%
4041-2969 (7010)
Invested
$164.34
Value
$166
PnL
+$1.66
Record
98%
4630-97 (4727)
Invested
$267.86
Value
—
PnL
-$267.86
Record
49%
3684-3801 (7485)
Invested
$31.64
Value
$29.99
PnL
-$1.65
Record
54%
2777-2356 (5133)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$19.48
Value
$28
PnL
+$8.52
Record
44%
2472-3195 (5667)
Invested
$26.57
Value
—
PnL
-$22.31
Record
45%
1425-1776 (3201)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$14.76
Value
$18
PnL
+$3.24
Record
70%
1877-817 (2694)
Invested
$15.81
Value
$27.26
PnL
+$11.45
Record
60%
4328-2942 (7270)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$15
Value
—
PnL
-$11.17
Record
51%
2609-2462 (5071)
Invested
$6.93
Value
$7
PnL
+$0.07
Record
50%
2915-2911 (5826)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.45
Record
48%
2582-2816 (5398)
Invested
$2.85
Value
—
PnL
-$2.85
Record
43%
2188-2930 (5118)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$2
PnL
+$0.5
Record
51%
2246-2136 (4382)
Invested
$0.5
Value
—
PnL
-$0.5
Record
36%
1518-2714 (4232)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $276
hoodquant
Down — $166
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
Down — $29.99
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $28
13897651
CTRUp — $0
BoneOhio
Down — $18
aaa221
Down — $27.26
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0