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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Up 38%

Total Value

$899.97

Combined PnL

-$796.8

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 13 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,732

Combined PnL-$871.22

Down8 traders

Total Value$899.97

Total Shares900

Combined PnL+$74.42

Up — 38%Down — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 27.9¢	$484.66	—	-$468.23	49% 3629-3731 (7360)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50¢	$517.63	$498.54	+$23.66	54% 4250-3596 (7846)
BoneOhio	Downavg 98.6¢	$209.13	$212.15	+$3.02	70% 1846-795 (2641)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 74.2¢	$58.87	$75	+$21.45	51% 2557-2416 (4973)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 32¢	$38.37	—	-$38.37	44% 1400-1752 (3152)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 75.1¢	$34.18	$38	+$5.75	48% 2561-2807 (5368)
0X 0x50f7<$100	Downavg 99.9¢	$35.36	$35.4	+$0.04	53% 1608-1411 (3019)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 87¢	$13.82	$15.88	+$2.06	50% 2856-2850 (5706)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 41¢	$5.33	$13	+$7.67	47% 2455-2714 (5169)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 42.8¢	$20.28	—	-$6.61	54% 2727-2307 (5034)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 52.9¢	$4.61	—	-$4.61	51% 2193-2101 (4294)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Downavg 10.3¢	$1.23	$12	+$10.76	42% 2109-2870 (4979)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Upavg 94.7¢	$353.4	—	-$353.4	58% 4015-2933 (6948)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$484.66

Value

—

PnL

-$468.23

Record

49%

3629-3731 (7360)

Invested

$517.63

Value

$498.54

PnL

+$23.66

Record

54%

4250-3596 (7846)

Invested

$209.13

Value

$212.15

PnL

+$3.02

Record

70%

1846-795 (2641)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$58.87

Value

$75

PnL

+$21.45

Record

51%

2557-2416 (4973)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$38.37

Value

—

PnL

-$38.37

Record

44%

1400-1752 (3152)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$34.18

Value

$38

PnL

+$5.75

Record

48%

2561-2807 (5368)

Invested

$35.36

Value

$35.4

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

1608-1411 (3019)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$13.82

Value

$15.88

PnL

+$2.06

Record

50%

2856-2850 (5706)

Invested

$5.33

Value

$13

PnL

+$7.67

Record

47%

2455-2714 (5169)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$20.28

Value

—

PnL

-$6.61

Record

54%

2727-2307 (5034)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$4.61

Value

—

PnL

-$4.61

Record

51%

2193-2101 (4294)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$1.23

Value

$12

PnL

+$10.76

Record

42%

2109-2870 (4979)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Invested

$353.4

Value

—

PnL

-$353.4

Record

58%

4015-2933 (6948)

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 13 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x4d494c9e...e94ace

Slug

eth-updown-15m-1794766500

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Down — $498.54

BoneOhio

Down — $212.15

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $75

13897651

Up — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $38

0x50f7

Down — $35.4

dvasdkasodk

Down — $15.88

ohioism

Down — $13

ply-pm2

Up — $0

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