Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
13
Up 62%
1 arb excluded
$805.7
-$548.51
Smart Money Signal
8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $521.31 | $492.11 | -$16.61 | 54% 4218-3562 (7780) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $246.14 | $492.11 | +$242.37 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51¢ | $256.5 | — | -$258.98 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 37.1¢ | $386.76 | — | -$369.26 | 49% 3629-3730 (7359) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 90.6¢ | $120.41 | $132.92 | +$12.51 | 51% 2181-2090 (4271) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 52.8¢ | $76.09 | $73.67 | -$2.41 | 44% 1390-1746 (3136) |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 75.7¢ | $107.99 | $60 | -$6.34 | 54% 2708-2292 (5000) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR | Upavg 41.8¢ | $176.37 | — | -$74.67 | 58% 4006-2920 (6926) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 60.6¢ | $22.43 | — | -$22.43 | 48% 2544-2786 (5330) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $26.1 | — | -$26.1 | 48% 2518-2730 (5248) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 58.4¢ | $50.4 | — | -$50.4 | 48% 2440-2688 (5128) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 76.5¢ | $60.47 | $25 | -$12.46 | 51% 2540-2400 (4940) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 19.9¢ | $3.78 | — | -$3.78 | 50% 2835-2829 (5664) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 26¢ | $7.8 | — | -$7.8 | 44% 2407-3121 (5528) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 25¢ | $5.5 | $22 | +$16.5 | 70% 1831-785 (2616) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $1.86 | — | -$1.86 | 46% 3282-3819 (7101) |
Invested
$521.31
Value
$492.11
PnL
-$16.61
Record
54%
4218-3562 (7780)
Both legs:
Invested
$386.76
Value
—
PnL
-$369.26
Record
49%
3629-3730 (7359)
Invested
$120.41
Value
$132.92
PnL
+$12.51
Record
51%
2181-2090 (4271)
Invested
$76.09
Value
$73.67
PnL
-$2.41
Record
44%
1390-1746 (3136)
Invested
$107.99
Value
$60
PnL
-$6.34
Record
54%
2708-2292 (5000)
Invested
$176.37
Value
—
PnL
-$74.67
Record
58%
4006-2920 (6926)
Invested
$22.43
Value
—
PnL
-$22.43
Record
48%
2544-2786 (5330)
Invested
$26.1
Value
—
PnL
-$26.1
Record
48%
2518-2730 (5248)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$50.4
Value
—
PnL
-$50.4
Record
48%
2440-2688 (5128)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$60.47
Value
$25
PnL
-$12.46
Record
51%
2540-2400 (4940)
Invested
$3.78
Value
—
PnL
-$3.78
Record
50%
2835-2829 (5664)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$7.8
Value
—
PnL
-$7.8
Record
44%
2407-3121 (5528)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$5.5
Value
$22
PnL
+$16.5
Record
70%
1831-785 (2616)
Invested
$1.86
Value
—
PnL
-$1.86
Record
46%
3282-3819 (7101)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $132.92
13897651
Down — $73.67
ply-pm2
Down — $60
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
CTRUp — $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRUp — $0
ohioism
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $25