Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Up (60%) · Up at 71¢ · $614 held · ends Nov 15

Up71¢Down29¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$613.82

Combined PnL

-$12.29

Research grade

NeutralUp at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up71%

Down30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$68.48

Total Shares84

Combined PnL-$2.47

Down4 traders

Total Value$55.34

Total Shares143

Combined PnL-$9.81

Up — 60%Down — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$490	-$1.9	54% 4162-3504 (7666)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$245	$365.05	+$120.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$245	$124.95	-$122.35
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 64.7¢	$42.93	$40.71	-$2.23	54% 2675-2263 (4938)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Downavg 38.1¢	$27.92	$21.63	-$6.3	58% 3986-2906 (6892)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 45¢	$24.63	$21.17	-$3.47	51% 2506-2369 (4875)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 62.8¢	$10.31	$10.24	-$0.07	44% 1373-1733 (3106)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 34¢	$10.2	$10.05	-$0.15	49% 2456-2514 (4970)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 50¢	$5	$5	+$0	50% 955-949 (1904)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 50¢	$5	$5	+$0	51% 2151-2062 (4213)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 66¢	$3.96	$3.81	-$0.15	44% 2374-3081 (5455)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 75¢	$3.75	$3.73	-$0.02	48% 2509-2762 (5271)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.5	+$0.1	48% 2407-2652 (5059)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$490

PnL

-$1.9

Record

54%

4162-3504 (7666)

Both legs:

Up$24550¢+$120.45

Down$24550¢-$122.35

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$42.93

Value

$40.71

PnL

-$2.23

Record

54%

2675-2263 (4938)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$27.92

Value

$21.63

PnL

-$6.3

Record

58%

3986-2906 (6892)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$24.63

Value

$21.17

PnL

-$3.47

Record

51%

2506-2369 (4875)

13897651<$100

Invested

$10.31

Value

$10.24

PnL

-$0.07

Record

44%

1373-1733 (3106)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.2

Value

$10.05

PnL

-$0.15

Record

49%

2456-2514 (4970)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

955-949 (1904)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

2151-2062 (4213)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$3.96

Value

$3.81

PnL

-$0.15

Record

44%

2374-3081 (5455)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.73

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

2509-2762 (5271)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

2407-2652 (5059)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.9%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.