Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

14 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Down (64%) · Down at 99¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Up1¢Down99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 64%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$611.45

Smart Money Entry

75.4¢ → 99¢

+31% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 22 top traders (64%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,074

Combined PnL+$889.94

Up8 traders

Total Value$602.45

Total Shares1,087

Combined PnL-$278.5

Down — 64%Up — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrDown 62% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Down 67% · 21

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$24.14	98% 4434-91 (4525)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 54.5¢	$712.67	$1.3K	+$572.55	49% 2456-2514 (4970)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50.5¢	$522.37	$546.32	+$46.99	54% 4162-3504 (7666)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 82.1¢	$213.55	$95.01	-$13.09	51% 2506-2369 (4875)
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 60.7¢	$128.28	$80.92	+$7.34	54% 2675-2263 (4938)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 43¢	$27.1	$51.5	+$24.4	48% 2484-2691 (5175)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 53¢	$47.04	$48.56	+$2.27	44% 1373-1733 (3106)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Upavg 71.3¢	$385.92	$39.94	-$257.5	58% 3986-2906 (6892)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 38¢	$11.4	$29.7	+$18.3	51% 1638-1554 (3192)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 38¢	$10.26	$26.73	+$16.47	51% 4890-4670 (9560)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 92.3¢	$27.25	$21.8	-$5.45	48% 2407-2652 (5059)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Downavg 94.2¢	$404.29	$11.99	+$236.05	42% 2048-2798 (4846)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 49.8¢	$46.53	$9.34	-$37.19	46% 3240-3776 (7016)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 33¢	$1.65	$4.96	+$3.31	44% 2374-3081 (5455)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 64¢	$3.2	$4.95	+$1.75	70% 1807-771 (2578)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 99¢	$4.95	$4.95	+$0	50% 2795-2794 (5589)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 66¢	$21.6	$3.27	-$18.33	60% 4192-2848 (7040)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 54.5¢	$10.9	$2	-$8.9	51% 2151-2062 (4213)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 50.9¢	$45.57	$1.98	+$1.92	52% 1650-1545 (3195)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 54¢	$5.06	$0.94	-$4.12	50% 955-949 (1904)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	$0.5	+$0.45	36% 1471-2611 (4082)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 0.1¢	$0.03	$0.13	+$0.11	49% 3600-3701 (7301)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,379.41

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$24.14

Record

98%

4434-91 (4525)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$712.67

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$572.55

Record

49%

2456-2514 (4970)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$522.37

Value

$546.32

PnL

+$46.99

Record

54%

4162-3504 (7666)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$213.55

Value

$95.01

PnL

-$13.09

Record

51%

2506-2369 (4875)

ply-pm2

Down

Invested

$128.28

Value

$80.92

PnL

+$7.34

Record

54%

2675-2263 (4938)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$27.1

Value

$51.5

PnL

+$24.4

Record

48%

2484-2691 (5175)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$47.04

Value

$48.56

PnL

+$2.27

Record

44%

1373-1733 (3106)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Invested

$385.92

Value

$39.94

PnL

-$257.5

Record

58%

3986-2906 (6892)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$11.4

Value

$29.7

PnL

+$18.3

Record

51%

1638-1554 (3192)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$10.26

Value

$26.73

PnL

+$16.47

Record

51%

4890-4670 (9560)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$27.25

Value

$21.8

PnL

-$5.45

Record

48%

2407-2652 (5059)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down

Invested

$404.29

Value

$11.99

PnL

+$236.05

Record

42%

2048-2798 (4846)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$46.53

Value

$9.34

PnL

-$37.19

Record

46%

3240-3776 (7016)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$1.65

Value

$4.96

PnL

+$3.31

Record

44%

2374-3081 (5455)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$3.2

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$1.75

Record

70%

1807-771 (2578)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2795-2794 (5589)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$21.6

Value

$3.27

PnL

-$18.33

Record

60%

4192-2848 (7040)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$10.9

Value

PnL

-$8.9

Record

51%

2151-2062 (4213)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$45.57

Value

$1.98

PnL

+$1.92

Record

52%

1650-1545 (3195)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$5.06

Value

$0.94

PnL

-$4.12

Record

50%

955-949 (1904)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.5

PnL

+$0.45

Record

36%

1471-2611 (4082)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.13

PnL

+$0.11

Record

49%

3600-3701 (7301)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 22 top traders (64%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrDown 62% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Down 67% · 21

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.