Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Down (67%) · Down at 98¢ · $806 held · ends Nov 15

Up2¢Down98¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

Total Value

$806.08

Combined PnL

-$40.74

Smart Money Entry

58.1¢ → 98¢

+69% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up2%

Down98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$761.92

Total Shares802

Combined PnL-$5.87

Up4 traders

Total Value$44.17

Total Shares282

Combined PnL-$34.87

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.8¢	$511.08	$500.65	-$3.05	54% 4094-3445 (7539)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 86.2¢	$55.98	$61.57	+$5.59	60% 4136-2815 (6951)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 79.2¢	$75.54	$59.78	-$2.89	54% 2644-2228 (4872)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 75.8¢	$59.95	$55	-$4.95	52% 2477-2332 (4809)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 50¢	$30.41	$30.64	+$0.23	50% 940-932 (1872)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 50¢	$28.75	$28	-$0.75	51% 2128-2037 (4165)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 18.4¢	$17.2	$19.3	+$2.1	58% 3966-2891 (6857)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Upavg 51¢	$17.85	$17.5	-$0.35	48% 1464-1570 (3034)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 73¢	$20.98	$16.2	-$3.16	48% 2455-2651 (5106)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 66.8¢	$6.97	$10.07	+$3.1	44% 1363-1710 (3073)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 23.9¢	$41.16	$4.3	-$36.86	49% 2434-2485 (4919)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 23.5¢	$2.82	$3.06	+$0.24	42% 2015-2741 (4756)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$511.08

Value

$500.65

PnL

-$3.05

Record

54%

4094-3445 (7539)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$55.98

Value

$61.57

PnL

+$5.59

Record

60%

4136-2815 (6951)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$75.54

Value

$59.78

PnL

-$2.89

Record

54%

2644-2228 (4872)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$59.95

Value

$55

PnL

-$4.95

Record

52%

2477-2332 (4809)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$30.41

Value

$30.64

PnL

+$0.23

Record

50%

940-932 (1872)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$28.75

Value

$28

PnL

-$0.75

Record

51%

2128-2037 (4165)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$17.2

Value

$19.3

PnL

+$2.1

Record

58%

3966-2891 (6857)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Invested

$17.85

Value

$17.5

PnL

-$0.35

Record

48%

1464-1570 (3034)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$20.98

Value

$16.2

PnL

-$3.16

Record

48%

2455-2651 (5106)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$6.97

Value

$10.07

PnL

+$3.1

Record

44%

1363-1710 (3073)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$41.16

Value

$4.3

PnL

-$36.86

Record

49%

2434-2485 (4919)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$2.82

Value

$3.06

PnL

+$0.24

Record

42%

2015-2741 (4756)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.