Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 36% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
22
Up 38%
3 arb excluded
$2.8K
$213
Smart Money Signal
8 of 22 top traders (36%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 47.2¢ | $785.66 | $1.3K | +$470.08 | 49% 2434-2485 (4919) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $523.96 | $488.26 | -$11.23 | 54% 4094-3445 (7539) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $252.17 | — | -$254.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.5¢ | $246.66 | $488.26 | +$243.47 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $491.54 | $496.5 | +$4.96 | 98% 4362-90 (4452) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 16.1¢ | $33.78 | $189.81 | +$170.67 | 49% 3552-3629 (7181) |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Upavg 42.2¢ | $163.47 | $199.15 | +$35.67 | 44% 1363-1710 (3073) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.2¢ | $84.01 | $199.15 | +$115.13 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.2¢ | $79.46 | — | -$79.46 | |
PL ply-pm2CTR | Downavg 46.7¢ | $181.37 | — | -$159.14 | 54% 2644-2228 (4872) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 55.5¢ | $87.06 | $69.99 | -$13.25 | 52% 2477-2332 (4809) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56¢ | $39.19 | $69.99 | +$31.82 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.5¢ | $45.07 | — | -$45.07 | |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100 | Upavg 89.3¢ | $60.91 | $52 | -$8.91 | 58% 3966-2891 (6857) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 60.9¢ | $31.65 | — | -$31.65 | 50% 2760-2748 (5508) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 47.7¢ | $9.54 | $20 | +$10.46 | 48% 2474-2726 (5200) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $17.15 | — | -$17.15 | 48% 1464-1570 (3034) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 35.4¢ | $9.58 | $19.97 | +$10.39 | 44% 2349-3036 (5385) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $14.7 | — | -$14.7 | 51% 4872-4649 (9521) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $18 | — | -$18 | 52% 1628-1527 (3155) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Upavg 95¢ | $9.5 | $10 | +$0.5 | 50% 1714-1745 (3459) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $4.86 | $9.53 | +$4.67 | 70% 1783-757 (2540) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $9.36 | — | -$9.36 | 36% 1455-2580 (4035) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $7.08 | — | -$7.08 | 51% 1622-1530 (3152) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $4.9 | — | -$4.9 | 50% 940-932 (1872) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $2.7 | — | -$2.7 | 51% 2128-2037 (4165) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 24.7¢ | $31.28 | — | -$31.28 | 48% 2455-2651 (5106) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 7.9¢ | $2.68 | — | -$2.68 | 42% 2015-2741 (4756) |
 wowitsamazingCTR | Downavg 60.1¢ | $132.38 | — | -$132.38 | 49% 205-216 (421) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $23.36 | — | -$23.36 | 46% 3204-3750 (6954) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 22¢ | $7.7 | — | +$4.54 | 60% 4136-2815 (6951) |
Invested
$785.66
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$470.08
Record
49%
2434-2485 (4919)
Invested
$523.96
Value
$488.26
PnL
-$11.23
Record
54%
4094-3445 (7539)
Both legs:
Invested
$491.54
Value
$496.5
PnL
+$4.96
Record
98%
4362-90 (4452)
Invested
$33.78
Value
$189.81
PnL
+$170.67
Record
49%
3552-3629 (7181)
Invested
$163.47
Value
$199.15
PnL
+$35.67
Record
44%
1363-1710 (3073)
Both legs:
Invested
$181.37
Value
—
PnL
-$159.14
Record
54%
2644-2228 (4872)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$87.06
Value
$69.99
PnL
-$13.25
Record
52%
2477-2332 (4809)
Both legs:
Invested
$60.91
Value
$52
PnL
-$8.91
Record
58%
3966-2891 (6857)
Invested
$31.65
Value
—
PnL
-$31.65
Record
50%
2760-2748 (5508)
Invested
$9.54
Value
$20
PnL
+$10.46
Record
48%
2474-2726 (5200)
Invested
$17.15
Value
—
PnL
-$17.15
Record
48%
1464-1570 (3034)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$9.58
Value
$19.97
PnL
+$10.39
Record
44%
2349-3036 (5385)
Invested
$14.7
Value
—
PnL
-$14.7
Record
51%
4872-4649 (9521)
Invested
$18
Value
—
PnL
-$18
Record
52%
1628-1527 (3155)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$9.5
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.5
Record
50%
1714-1745 (3459)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$4.86
Value
$9.53
PnL
+$4.67
Record
70%
1783-757 (2540)
Invested
$9.36
Value
—
PnL
-$9.36
Record
36%
1455-2580 (4035)
Invested
$7.08
Value
—
PnL
-$7.08
Record
51%
1622-1530 (3152)
Invested
$4.9
Value
—
PnL
-$4.9
Record
50%
940-932 (1872)
Invested
$2.7
Value
—
PnL
-$2.7
Record
51%
2128-2037 (4165)
Invested
$31.28
Value
—
PnL
-$31.28
Record
48%
2455-2651 (5106)
Invested
$2.68
Value
—
PnL
-$2.68
Record
42%
2015-2741 (4756)
wowitsamazingCTRInvested
$132.38
Value
—
PnL
-$132.38
Record
49%
205-216 (421)
Invested
$23.36
Value
—
PnL
-$23.36
Record
46%
3204-3750 (6954)
Invested
$7.7
Value
—
PnL
+$4.54
Record
60%
4136-2815 (6951)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
Up — $1.3K
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $496.5
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $189.81
13897651
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
CTRDown — $0
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Up — $52
dvasdkasodk
CTRDown — $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up — $20