Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
12
Down 50%
2 arb excluded
$1.4K
-$382.72
Smart Money Signal
6 of 12 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.2¢ | $508.61 | $497.73 | -$7.45 | 54% 4094-3445 (7539) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.2¢ | $253.59 | — | -$256.2 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $248.86 | $497.73 | +$248.75 | |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 74.6¢ | $333.28 | $397 | +$71.77 | 58% 3966-2891 (6857) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9¢ | $192.8 | $195 | +$2.2 | 98% 4362-90 (4452) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 48.4¢ | $69.86 | $68.94 | +$2.18 | 44% 1363-1710 (3073) |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 80.1¢ | $164.79 | $66.45 | -$2.61 | 54% 2644-2228 (4872) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 59.5¢ | $102.27 | $59 | -$1.53 | 52% 2477-2332 (4809) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 59.5¢ | $35.08 | — | -$26.68 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.5¢ | $32.72 | $59 | +$25.15 | |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Downavg 47.8¢ | $24.96 | $52.19 | +$27.23 | 42% 2015-2741 (4756) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 52.9¢ | $66.87 | $96.17 | +$39.11 | 60% 4136-2815 (6951) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $14.1 | — | -$14.1 | 48% 2474-2726 (5200) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 39.6¢ | $24.39 | — | -$18.59 | 48% 2373-2615 (4988) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 14.6¢ | $28.42 | — | -$9.02 | 50% 2760-2748 (5508) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $4.09 | — | -$4.09 | 50% 940-932 (1872) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 43¢ | $0.73 | — | -$0.73 | 48% 2455-2651 (5106) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 56.8¢ | $476.07 | — | -$476.07 | 49% 2434-2485 (4919) |
Invested
$508.61
Value
$497.73
PnL
-$7.45
Record
54%
4094-3445 (7539)
Both legs:
Invested
$333.28
Value
$397
PnL
+$71.77
Record
58%
3966-2891 (6857)
Invested
$192.8
Value
$195
PnL
+$2.2
Record
98%
4362-90 (4452)
Invested
$69.86
Value
$68.94
PnL
+$2.18
Record
44%
1363-1710 (3073)
Invested
$164.79
Value
$66.45
PnL
-$2.61
Record
54%
2644-2228 (4872)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$102.27
Value
$59
PnL
-$1.53
Record
52%
2477-2332 (4809)
Both legs:
Invested
$24.96
Value
$52.19
PnL
+$27.23
Record
42%
2015-2741 (4756)
Invested
$66.87
Value
$96.17
PnL
+$39.11
Record
60%
4136-2815 (6951)
Invested
$14.1
Value
—
PnL
-$14.1
Record
48%
2474-2726 (5200)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$24.39
Value
—
PnL
-$18.59
Record
48%
2373-2615 (4988)
Invested
$28.42
Value
—
PnL
-$9.02
Record
50%
2760-2748 (5508)
Invested
$4.09
Value
—
PnL
-$4.09
Record
50%
940-932 (1872)
Invested
$0.73
Value
—
PnL
-$0.73
Record
48%
2455-2651 (5106)
Invested
$476.07
Value
—
PnL
-$476.07
Record
49%
2434-2485 (4919)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $397
hoodquant
Down — $195
13897651
Down — $68.94
ply-pm2
Down — $66.45
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Down — $52.19
aaa221
Down — $96.17
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp — $0
ohioism
CTRUp — $0