Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 31% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Down 31%
2 arb excluded
$1.2K
-$565.71
Smart Money Signal
5 of 16 top traders (31%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 48.5¢ | $512.85 | $489 | +$0 | 54% 4094-3445 (7539) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.9¢ | $244.11 | $489 | +$248.28 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.5¢ | $248.45 | — | -$248.28 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 28.3¢ | $402.72 | — | -$401.51 | 49% 3552-3629 (7181) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.3¢ | $265.01 | $269.52 | +$4.51 | 98% 4362-90 (4452) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 52.9¢ | $106.31 | $184 | +$77.69 | 58% 3966-2891 (6857) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 89.1¢ | $115.87 | $95.41 | -$1.08 | 52% 2477-2332 (4809) |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Downavg 61.3¢ | $86.03 | $88.44 | +$2.41 | 44% 1363-1710 (3073) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.3¢ | $54.22 | $88.44 | +$34.22 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.3¢ | $31.81 | — | -$31.81 | |
PL ply-pm2CTR | Upavg 24.8¢ | $111.39 | — | -$84.81 | 54% 2644-2228 (4872) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $37.29 | $30.53 | +$0.74 | 60% 4136-2815 (6951) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Upavg 34.4¢ | $20.71 | — | -$20.71 | 52% 1628-1527 (3155) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $22.2 | — | -$22.2 | 51% 1622-1530 (3152) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Upavg 36.4¢ | $21.55 | — | -$21.55 | 51% 4872-4649 (9521) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $13.05 | $15.17 | +$2.12 | 70% 1783-757 (2540) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 50.1¢ | $20.91 | — | -$20.91 | 48% 1464-1570 (3034) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 18¢ | $2.17 | — | -$2.17 | 36% 1455-2580 (4035) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 36¢ | $3.6 | — | -$3.6 | 44% 2349-3036 (5385) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 4.8¢ | $6.75 | — | -$6.75 | 50% 2760-2748 (5508) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 47.2¢ | $60.69 | — | -$60.69 | 49% 2434-2485 (4919) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $4.8 | — | -$4.8 | 48% 2373-2615 (4988) |
Invested
$512.85
Value
$489
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
4094-3445 (7539)
Both legs:
Invested
$402.72
Value
—
PnL
-$401.51
Record
49%
3552-3629 (7181)
Invested
$265.01
Value
$269.52
PnL
+$4.51
Record
98%
4362-90 (4452)
Invested
$106.31
Value
$184
PnL
+$77.69
Record
58%
3966-2891 (6857)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$115.87
Value
$95.41
PnL
-$1.08
Record
52%
2477-2332 (4809)
Invested
$86.03
Value
$88.44
PnL
+$2.41
Record
44%
1363-1710 (3073)
Both legs:
Invested
$111.39
Value
—
PnL
-$84.81
Record
54%
2644-2228 (4872)
Invested
$37.29
Value
$30.53
PnL
+$0.74
Record
60%
4136-2815 (6951)
Invested
$20.71
Value
—
PnL
-$20.71
Record
52%
1628-1527 (3155)
Invested
$22.2
Value
—
PnL
-$22.2
Record
51%
1622-1530 (3152)
Invested
$21.55
Value
—
PnL
-$21.55
Record
51%
4872-4649 (9521)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$13.05
Value
$15.17
PnL
+$2.12
Record
70%
1783-757 (2540)
Invested
$20.91
Value
—
PnL
-$20.91
Record
48%
1464-1570 (3034)
Invested
$2.17
Value
—
PnL
-$2.17
Record
36%
1455-2580 (4035)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$3.6
Value
—
PnL
-$3.6
Record
44%
2349-3036 (5385)
Invested
$6.75
Value
—
PnL
-$6.75
Record
50%
2760-2748 (5508)
Invested
$60.69
Value
—
PnL
-$60.69
Record
49%
2434-2485 (4919)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$4.8
Value
—
PnL
-$4.8
Record
48%
2373-2615 (4988)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $269.52
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $184
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $95.41
13897651
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
Down — $30.53
mo-money
CTRUp — $0
almach
CTRUp — $0