Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
18
Down 78%
3 arb excluded
$2.4K
$105.72
Smart Money Signal
14 of 18 top traders (78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 79.7¢ | $770.97 | $682.79 | -$88.18 | 49% 3541-3613 (7154) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.4¢ | $521.2 | $496.21 | +$21.26 | 54% 4065-3413 (7478) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.5¢ | $235.51 | — | -$234.75 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.4¢ | $250.25 | $496.21 | +$256.01 | |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 70.4¢ | $304.62 | $432.79 | +$128.17 | 58% 3957-2883 (6840) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Downavg 84.9¢ | $261.88 | $308.5 | +$46.63 | 42% 1993-2712 (4705) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 94.9¢ | $94.8 | $85 | -$9.8 | 51% 2459-2319 (4778) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $67.31 | $67.99 | +$0.68 | 98% 4326-89 (4415) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 81.1¢ | $62.75 | $66.84 | +$11.92 | 60% 4116-2795 (6911) |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $49.28 | $50.14 | +$0.86 | 44% 1359-1698 (3057) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 27.9¢ | $16.21 | — | -$16.21 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 66¢ | $33.07 | $50.14 | +$17.07 | |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 53.9¢ | $29.08 | $53.94 | +$24.86 | 48% 1455-1564 (3019) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 68.2¢ | $77.3 | $60 | +$7.87 | 54% 2631-2208 (4839) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 20.8¢ | $9.72 | — | -$3.53 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68.2¢ | $40.9 | $60 | +$11.4 | |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $24.61 | $20 | -$4.61 | 48% 2357-2599 (4956) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $19.3 | $26.83 | +$10.28 | 50% 2738-2731 (5469) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $25.5 | — | -$25.5 | 51% 2104-2030 (4134) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 84.7¢ | $21.69 | $25.6 | +$3.91 | 48% 2459-2704 (5163) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $16.95 | $15 | -$1.95 | 44% 2338-3018 (5356) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 29.8¢ | $8.93 | $30 | +$21.07 | 48% 2437-2636 (5073) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $10.63 | $8.71 | -$1.92 | 70% 1777-756 (2533) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Upavg 23¢ | $6.9 | — | -$6.9 | 51% 1612-1521 (3133) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Upavg 23¢ | $6.9 | — | -$6.9 | 52% 1616-1518 (3134) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $4.9 | $10 | +$5.1 | 50% 933-923 (1856) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Upavg 23¢ | $1.14 | — | -$1.14 | 51% 4861-4639 (9500) |
Invested
$770.97
Value
$682.79
PnL
-$88.18
Record
49%
3541-3613 (7154)
Invested
$521.2
Value
$496.21
PnL
+$21.26
Record
54%
4065-3413 (7478)
Both legs:
Invested
$304.62
Value
$432.79
PnL
+$128.17
Record
58%
3957-2883 (6840)
Invested
$261.88
Value
$308.5
PnL
+$46.63
Record
42%
1993-2712 (4705)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$94.8
Value
$85
PnL
-$9.8
Record
51%
2459-2319 (4778)
Invested
$67.31
Value
$67.99
PnL
+$0.68
Record
98%
4326-89 (4415)
Invested
$62.75
Value
$66.84
PnL
+$11.92
Record
60%
4116-2795 (6911)
Invested
$49.28
Value
$50.14
PnL
+$0.86
Record
44%
1359-1698 (3057)
Both legs:
Invested
$29.08
Value
$53.94
PnL
+$24.86
Record
48%
1455-1564 (3019)
Invested
$77.3
Value
$60
PnL
+$7.87
Record
54%
2631-2208 (4839)
Both legs:
ohioism<$100Invested
$24.61
Value
$20
PnL
-$4.61
Record
48%
2357-2599 (4956)
Invested
$19.3
Value
$26.83
PnL
+$10.28
Record
50%
2738-2731 (5469)
Invested
$25.5
Value
—
PnL
-$25.5
Record
51%
2104-2030 (4134)
Invested
$21.69
Value
$25.6
PnL
+$3.91
Record
48%
2459-2704 (5163)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$16.95
Value
$15
PnL
-$1.95
Record
44%
2338-3018 (5356)
Invested
$8.93
Value
$30
PnL
+$21.07
Record
48%
2437-2636 (5073)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$10.63
Value
$8.71
PnL
-$1.92
Record
70%
1777-756 (2533)
Invested
$6.9
Value
—
PnL
-$6.9
Record
51%
1612-1521 (3133)
Invested
$6.9
Value
—
PnL
-$6.9
Record
52%
1616-1518 (3134)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$10
PnL
+$5.1
Record
50%
933-923 (1856)
Invested
$1.14
Value
—
PnL
-$1.14
Record
51%
4861-4639 (9500)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $682.79
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $432.79
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Down — $308.5
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $85
hoodquant
Down — $67.99
aaa221
Down — $66.84
13897651
ARBArbitrage — excluded
PBot-5
Down — $53.94
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded