Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (55%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Down (50%) · Down at 46¢ · $859 held · ends Nov 15

Up55¢Down45¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$858.79

Combined PnL

-$2.21

Research grade

NeutralDown at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Up 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up55%

Down46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$87.7

Total Shares138

Combined PnL-$1.02

Up4 traders

Total Value$54.97

Total Shares111

Combined PnL-$1.19

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$505	$500	-$0.1	54% 3980-3330 (7310)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$262.5	+$12.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$237.5	-$12.6
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 49.7¢	$213.07	$216.12	+$3.05	50% 3495-3507 (7002)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.7¢	$139.57	$141.87	+$2.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 49¢	$73.5	$74.25	+$0.75
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 50.1¢	$39.98	$41.03	+$1.05	55% 2589-2161 (4750)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 48.1¢	$26.2	$25.58	-$0.62	52% 2413-2270 (4683)
PB PBot-5<$100	Upavg 49¢	$17.15	$17.5	+$0.35	48% 1426-1527 (2953)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Downavg 45.4¢	$17.24	$16.15	-$1.09	58% 3933-2861 (6794)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 53¢	$15.9	$15.15	-$0.75	48% 2415-2654 (5069)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 48¢	$14.4	$14.25	-$0.15	48% 2311-2552 (4863)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 54¢	$8.71	$8.07	-$0.64	51% 2054-1988 (4042)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 53¢	$5.3	$4.95	-$0.35	44% 2305-2951 (5256)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$505

Value

$500

PnL

-$0.1

Record

54%

3980-3330 (7310)

Both legs:

Down$25050¢+$12.5

Up$25050¢-$12.6

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$213.07

Value

$216.12

PnL

+$3.05

Record

50%

3495-3507 (7002)

Both legs:

Invested

$39.98

Value

$41.03

PnL

+$1.05

Record

55%

2589-2161 (4750)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$26.2

Value

$25.58

PnL

-$0.62

Record

52%

2413-2270 (4683)

PBot-5<$100

Invested

$17.15

Value

$17.5

PnL

+$0.35

Record

48%

1426-1527 (2953)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$17.24

Value

$16.15

PnL

-$1.09

Record

58%

3933-2861 (6794)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$15.9

Value

$15.15

PnL

-$0.75

Record

48%

2415-2654 (5069)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$14.4

Value

$14.25

PnL

-$0.15

Record

48%

2311-2552 (4863)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$8.71

Value

$8.07

PnL

-$0.64

Record

51%

2054-1988 (4042)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.3

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0.35

Record

44%

2305-2951 (5256)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 46%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Up 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.