Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Down 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
-$93.62
Smart Money Signal
9 of 15 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $752.62 | $760.22 | +$7.6 | 98% 4234-88 (4322) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.7¢ | $508.6 | $490 | -$7.2 | 54% 3980-3330 (7310) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $245.2 | $490 | +$246.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.7¢ | $253.4 | — | -$253.4 | |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 77.1¢ | $232.83 | $302 | +$69.17 | 58% 3933-2861 (6794) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 9.3¢ | $172.37 | — | -$172.37 | 50% 3495-3507 (7002) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $27.5 | $50 | +$22.5 | 51% 2054-1988 (4042) |
SU suntori<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $22.05 | $37.37 | +$15.32 | 46% 3134-3672 (6806) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $25.68 | $23.34 | -$2.34 | 52% 1584-1489 (3073) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 98.5¢ | $124.78 | $20.62 | +$3.61 | 52% 2413-2270 (4683) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $12.3 | — | -$12.3 | 51% 4829-4609 (9438) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $12.3 | — | -$12.3 | 44% 2305-2951 (5256) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Upavg 40¢ | $12 | — | -$12 | 52% 1584-1490 (3074) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $11.45 | $12.18 | +$0.73 | 60% 4054-2741 (6795) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $33.18 | $10 | -$2.16 | 55% 2589-2161 (4750) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $2.45 | — | -$2.45 | 44% 1337-1675 (3012) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Downavg 60.2¢ | $7.22 | $1 | +$4.5 | 42% 1925-2669 (4594) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $1.14 | — | -$1.14 | 70% 1755-745 (2500) |
Invested
$752.62
Value
$760.22
PnL
+$7.6
Record
98%
4234-88 (4322)
Invested
$508.6
Value
$490
PnL
-$7.2
Record
54%
3980-3330 (7310)
Both legs:
Invested
$232.83
Value
$302
PnL
+$69.17
Record
58%
3933-2861 (6794)
Invested
$172.37
Value
—
PnL
-$172.37
Record
50%
3495-3507 (7002)
Invested
$27.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$22.5
Record
51%
2054-1988 (4042)
Invested
$22.05
Value
$37.37
PnL
+$15.32
Record
46%
3134-3672 (6806)
Invested
$25.68
Value
$23.34
PnL
-$2.34
Record
52%
1584-1489 (3073)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$124.78
Value
$20.62
PnL
+$3.61
Record
52%
2413-2270 (4683)
Invested
$12.3
Value
—
PnL
-$12.3
Record
51%
4829-4609 (9438)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$12.3
Value
—
PnL
-$12.3
Record
44%
2305-2951 (5256)
Invested
$12
Value
—
PnL
-$12
Record
52%
1584-1490 (3074)
Invested
$11.45
Value
$12.18
PnL
+$0.73
Record
60%
4054-2741 (6795)
Invested
$33.18
Value
$10
PnL
-$2.16
Record
55%
2589-2161 (4750)
Invested
$2.45
Value
—
PnL
-$2.45
Record
44%
1337-1675 (3012)
Invested
$7.22
Value
$1
PnL
+$4.5
Record
42%
1925-2669 (4594)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$1.14
Value
—
PnL
-$1.14
Record
70%
1755-745 (2500)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $760.22
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $302
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $50
suntori
Down — $37.37
almach
Down — $23.34
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $20.62
bosona
CTRUp — $0
G-Penis-Monster
CTRUp — $0