Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
17
Down 53%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
-$493.36
Smart Money Signal
9 of 17 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 76.8¢ | $906.9 | $655.73 | -$251.18 | 50% 3495-3507 (7002) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 76.8¢ | $503.36 | $655.73 | +$152.37 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 21.8¢ | $403.55 | — | -$403.55 | |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49.5¢ | $502.7 | — | -$494.6 | 54% 3980-3330 (7310) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Upavg 81.1¢ | $465.6 | $260.18 | +$9.58 | 58% 3933-2861 (6794) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 98.6¢ | $58.17 | $59 | +$0.83 | 98% 4234-88 (4322) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 60.6¢ | $71.79 | $54.01 | -$3.17 | 52% 2413-2270 (4683) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 77.2¢ | $40.16 | $41.96 | +$2.31 | 44% 1337-1675 (3012) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 82.6¢ | $94.45 | $32.26 | -$3.59 | 55% 2589-2161 (4750) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 51.4¢ | $25.7 | — | -$25.7 | 51% 2054-1988 (4042) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $16.45 | $35 | +$18.55 | 48% 1426-1527 (2953) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $15.51 | $35.25 | +$19.74 | 60% 4054-2741 (6795) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 13.7¢ | $7.14 | — | -$7.14 | 48% 2311-2552 (4863) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Downavg 10.2¢ | $3.19 | — | -$3.19 | 51% 4829-4609 (9438) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Upavg 27¢ | $1.62 | $6 | +$4.38 | 42% 1925-2669 (4594) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 13¢ | $3.9 | — | -$3.9 | 44% 2305-2951 (5256) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Downavg 17¢ | $2.21 | — | -$2.21 | 52% 1584-1489 (3073) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Downavg 11¢ | $1.65 | — | -$1.65 | 52% 1584-1490 (3074) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 12¢ | $2.4 | — | -$2.4 | 48% 2415-2654 (5069) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 11¢ | $1.21 | — | -$1.21 | 48% 2400-2586 (4986) |
Invested
$906.9
Value
$655.73
PnL
-$251.18
Record
50%
3495-3507 (7002)
Both legs:
Invested
$502.7
Value
—
PnL
-$494.6
Record
54%
3980-3330 (7310)
Invested
$465.6
Value
$260.18
PnL
+$9.58
Record
58%
3933-2861 (6794)
Invested
$58.17
Value
$59
PnL
+$0.83
Record
98%
4234-88 (4322)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$71.79
Value
$54.01
PnL
-$3.17
Record
52%
2413-2270 (4683)
Invested
$40.16
Value
$41.96
PnL
+$2.31
Record
44%
1337-1675 (3012)
Invested
$94.45
Value
$32.26
PnL
-$3.59
Record
55%
2589-2161 (4750)
Invested
$25.7
Value
—
PnL
-$25.7
Record
51%
2054-1988 (4042)
Invested
$16.45
Value
$35
PnL
+$18.55
Record
48%
1426-1527 (2953)
Invested
$15.51
Value
$35.25
PnL
+$19.74
Record
60%
4054-2741 (6795)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$7.14
Value
—
PnL
-$7.14
Record
48%
2311-2552 (4863)
Invested
$3.19
Value
—
PnL
-$3.19
Record
51%
4829-4609 (9438)
Invested
$1.62
Value
$6
PnL
+$4.38
Record
42%
1925-2669 (4594)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$3.9
Value
—
PnL
-$3.9
Record
44%
2305-2951 (5256)
Invested
$2.21
Value
—
PnL
-$2.21
Record
52%
1584-1489 (3073)
Invested
$1.65
Value
—
PnL
-$1.65
Record
52%
1584-1490 (3074)
Invested
$2.4
Value
—
PnL
-$2.4
Record
48%
2415-2654 (5069)
Invested
$1.21
Value
—
PnL
-$1.21
Record
48%
2400-2586 (4986)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Up — $260.18
hoodquant
Up — $59
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $54.01
13897651
Up — $41.96
ply-pm2
Up — $32.26
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0
PBot-5
Up — $35
aaa221
Up — $35.25