Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Up (55%) · Up at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$70.64

Smart Money Entry

83.3¢ → 100¢

+20% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,941

Combined PnL+$73.53

Down5 traders

Total Value$12.19

Total Shares87

Combined PnL-$2.89

Up — 55%Down — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 82.1¢	$995.3	$1.2K	+$216.09	42% 1920-2608 (4528)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.4¢	$518.16	$494.42	+$6.82	54% 3939-3307 (7246)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.4¢	$247.13	$345.45	+$106.15
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.7¢	$246.15	$148.98	-$99.33
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 79.7¢	$769.55	$493.13	-$139.38	50% 3476-3482 (6958)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.9¢	$189.96	$191.9	+$1.94	98% 4191-88 (4279)
AA aaa221ARB<$100	Upavg 77¢	$58.3	$59	+$0.7	60% 4018-2726 (6744)
└ Up leg	Upavg 77¢	$30.8	$29.8	-$1
└ Down leg	Downavg 24¢	$27.5	$29.2	+$1.7
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 85.4¢	$33.7	$29.23	-$4.47	51% 2389-2256 (4645)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 97¢	$61.84	$10.04	-$0.34	54% 2562-2153 (4715)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$6.44	$6.58	+$0.13	48% 1421-1515 (2936)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 85¢	$5.4	$5.09	-$0.31	50% 2671-2654 (5325)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Downavg 16¢	$3.36	$4.1	+$0.73	58% 3913-2854 (6767)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 9¢	$1.8	$1.5	-$0.3	48% 2398-2644 (5042)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 14.1¢	$3.17	$0.01	-$3.16	44% 1326-1666 (2992)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 3¢	$0.3	$0.01	-$0.3	44% 2289-2937 (5226)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$995.3

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$216.09

Record

42%

1920-2608 (4528)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$518.16

Value

$494.42

PnL

+$6.82

Record

54%

3939-3307 (7246)

Both legs:

Up$247.1350.4¢+$106.15

Down$246.1548.7¢-$99.33

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$769.55

Value

$493.13

PnL

-$139.38

Record

50%

3476-3482 (6958)

hoodquant

Invested

$189.96

Value

$191.9

PnL

+$1.94

Record

98%

4191-88 (4279)

aaa221ARB<$100

Invested

$58.3

Value

$59

PnL

+$0.7

Record

60%

4018-2726 (6744)

Both legs:

Up$30.877¢-$1

Down$27.524¢+$1.7

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$33.7

Value

$29.23

PnL

-$4.47

Record

51%

2389-2256 (4645)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$61.84

Value

$10.04

PnL

-$0.34

Record

54%

2562-2153 (4715)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.44

Value

$6.58

PnL

+$0.13

Record

48%

1421-1515 (2936)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$5.4

Value

$5.09

PnL

-$0.31

Record

50%

2671-2654 (5325)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.36

Value

$4.1

PnL

+$0.73

Record

58%

3913-2854 (6767)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0.3

Record

48%

2398-2644 (5042)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.17

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.16

Record

44%

1326-1666 (2992)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.3

Record

44%

2289-2937 (5226)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.