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Consensus Lost βœ—

Smart money consensus was Down β€” but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

RESOLVED

πŸ’€

Lost

Consensus Traders

20

Down 80%

Total Value

$105.53

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 20 top traders (80%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares2,747
Combined PnL$-2.4K
Up4 traders
Total Value$105.53
Total Shares106
Combined PnL+$39.72
Down β€” 80%Up β€” 20%
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR
Down

Invested

$1,462.19

Value

β€”

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

50%

3476-3482 (6958)

BY
ByteBadger92CTR
Down

Invested

$505.73

Value

β€”

PnL

-$499.73

Record

54%

3939-3307 (7246)

MO
mo-moneyCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$33.6

Value

β€”

PnL

-$33.6

Record

51%

1567-1482 (3049)

PB
PBot-5CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$28.8

Value

β€”

PnL

-$28.8

Record

48%

1421-1515 (2936)

AL
almachCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$26.49

Value

β€”

PnL

-$26.49

Record

51%

1570-1480 (3050)

13
13897651CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$34.12

Value

β€”

PnL

-$34.12

Record

44%

1326-1666 (2992)

SU
suntori<$100
Up

Invested

$11.03

Value

$28.03

PnL

+$17

Record

46%

3122-3654 (6776)

AA
aaa221CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$47.16

Value

β€”

PnL

-$11.76

Record

60%

4018-2726 (6744)

BO
bosonaCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$17.1

Value

β€”

PnL

-$17.1

Record

51%

4812-4602 (9414)

0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$11.8

Value

β€”

PnL

-$11.8

Record

48%

2388-2566 (4954)

PL
ply-pm2<$100
Up

Invested

$21.44

Value

$13.5

PnL

-$7.94

Record

54%

2562-2153 (4715)

0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$6.66

Value

β€”

PnL

-$6.66

Record

42%

1920-2608 (4528)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$73.4

Value

β€”

PnL

-$72.75

Record

51%

2389-2256 (4645)

BoneOhio<$100
Up

Invested

$7.95

Value

$15

PnL

+$7.05

Record

70%

1747-744 (2491)

0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100
Up

Invested

$25.39

Value

$49

PnL

+$23.61

Record

51%

2039-1965 (4004)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$5.06

Value

β€”

PnL

-$5.06

Record

44%

2289-2937 (5226)

DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$1.9

Value

β€”

PnL

-$1.9

Record

50%

2671-2654 (5325)

0X
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR
Down

Invested

$125.71

Value

β€”

PnL

-$125.71

Record

58%

3913-2854 (6767)

ohioismCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$43.29

Value

β€”

PnL

-$43.29

Record

47%

2293-2538 (4831)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$12.96

Value

β€”

PnL

-$12.96

Record

48%

2398-2644 (5042)