Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Down β but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
20
Down 80%
$105.53
$-2.3K
Smart Money Signal
16 of 20 top traders (80%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Downavg 54.7Β’ | $1.5K | β | $-1.4K | 50% 3476-3482 (6958) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50.1Β’ | $505.73 | β | -$499.73 | 54% 3939-3307 (7246) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Downavg 56Β’ | $33.6 | β | -$33.6 | 51% 1567-1482 (3049) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Downavg 48.2Β’ | $28.8 | β | -$28.8 | 48% 1421-1515 (2936) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Downavg 55.1Β’ | $26.49 | β | -$26.49 | 51% 1570-1480 (3050) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Downavg 50.5Β’ | $34.12 | β | -$34.12 | 44% 1326-1666 (2992) |
SU suntori<$100 | Upavg 39.3Β’ | $11.03 | $28.03 | +$17 | 46% 3122-3654 (6776) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 58.8Β’ | $47.16 | β | -$11.76 | 60% 4018-2726 (6744) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Downavg 57Β’ | $17.1 | β | -$17.1 | 51% 4812-4602 (9414) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 59Β’ | $11.8 | β | -$11.8 | 48% 2388-2566 (4954) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 97Β’ | $21.44 | $13.5 | -$7.94 | 54% 2562-2153 (4715) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 55.5Β’ | $6.66 | β | -$6.66 | 42% 1920-2608 (4528) |
![]() Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 77.5Β’ | $73.4 | β | -$72.75 | 51% 2389-2256 (4645) |
![]() BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 53Β’ | $7.95 | $15 | +$7.05 | 70% 1747-744 (2491) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 51.8Β’ | $25.39 | $49 | +$23.61 | 51% 2039-1965 (4004) |
![]() G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 46Β’ | $5.06 | β | -$5.06 | 44% 2289-2937 (5226) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 32Β’ | $1.9 | β | -$1.9 | 50% 2671-2654 (5325) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR | Downavg 42.5Β’ | $125.71 | β | -$125.71 | 58% 3913-2854 (6767) |
![]() ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 43.3Β’ | $43.29 | β | -$43.29 | 47% 2293-2538 (4831) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 41.9Β’ | $12.96 | β | -$12.96 | 48% 2398-2644 (5042) |
Invested
$1,462.19
Value
β
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
50%
3476-3482 (6958)
Invested
$505.73
Value
β
PnL
-$499.73
Record
54%
3939-3307 (7246)
Invested
$33.6
Value
β
PnL
-$33.6
Record
51%
1567-1482 (3049)
Invested
$28.8
Value
β
PnL
-$28.8
Record
48%
1421-1515 (2936)
Invested
$26.49
Value
β
PnL
-$26.49
Record
51%
1570-1480 (3050)
Invested
$34.12
Value
β
PnL
-$34.12
Record
44%
1326-1666 (2992)
Invested
$11.03
Value
$28.03
PnL
+$17
Record
46%
3122-3654 (6776)
Invested
$47.16
Value
β
PnL
-$11.76
Record
60%
4018-2726 (6744)
Invested
$17.1
Value
β
PnL
-$17.1
Record
51%
4812-4602 (9414)
Invested
$11.8
Value
β
PnL
-$11.8
Record
48%
2388-2566 (4954)
Invested
$21.44
Value
$13.5
PnL
-$7.94
Record
54%
2562-2153 (4715)
Invested
$6.66
Value
β
PnL
-$6.66
Record
42%
1920-2608 (4528)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$73.4
Value
β
PnL
-$72.75
Record
51%
2389-2256 (4645)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$7.95
Value
$15
PnL
+$7.05
Record
70%
1747-744 (2491)
Invested
$25.39
Value
$49
PnL
+$23.61
Record
51%
2039-1965 (4004)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$5.06
Value
β
PnL
-$5.06
Record
44%
2289-2937 (5226)
Invested
$1.9
Value
β
PnL
-$1.9
Record
50%
2671-2654 (5325)
Invested
$125.71
Value
β
PnL
-$125.71
Record
58%
3913-2854 (6767)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$43.29
Value
β
PnL
-$43.29
Record
47%
2293-2538 (4831)
Invested
$12.96
Value
β
PnL
-$12.96
Record
48%
2398-2644 (5042)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRDown β $0
ByteBadger92
CTRDown β $0
mo-money
CTRDown β $0
PBot-5
CTRDown β $0
almach
CTRDown β $0
13897651
CTRDown β $0
suntori
Up β $28.03
aaa221
CTRDown β $0
bosona
CTRDown β $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRDown β $0