Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Down (79%) · Down at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 79%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$273.91

Smart Money Entry

61.2¢ → 100¢

+63% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,127

Combined PnL+$450.33

Up3 traders

Total Value$28.9

Total Shares1,893

Combined PnL-$176.43

Down — 79%Up — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 49.7¢	$372.3	$548.53	+$176.23	50% 3448-3455 (6903)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.4¢	$509.49	$494.81	+$9.51	54% 3914-3284 (7198)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 54.5¢	$217.92	$399.34	+$181.42	58% 3901-2845 (6746)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$391.95	$391.56	-$0.39	52% 1489-1357 (2846)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 49.3¢	$75.06	$96.22	+$27.21	60% 3996-2713 (6709)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 81.6¢	$101.6	$76.09	+$13.35	51% 2371-2247 (4618)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 50¢	$16.8	$30	+$13.2	51% 1558-1472 (3030)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 50¢	$17.2	$30	+$12.8	52% 1562-1470 (3032)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 49¢	$16.5	$29.99	+$13.5	51% 4806-4590 (9396)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 53¢	$26.5	$25	-$1.5	51% 2031-1950 (3981)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 50.5¢	$15.86	$8.81	+$2.95	54% 2550-2139 (4689)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 54¢	$4.68	$5.25	+$0.57	44% 1317-1660 (2977)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 15¢	$2.8	$2.99	+$0.19	46% 3106-3639 (6745)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR	Upavg 9.7¢	$176.03	$0.91	-$175.11	43% 1909-2581 (4490)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$372.3

Value

$548.53

PnL

+$176.23

Record

50%

3448-3455 (6903)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$509.49

Value

$494.81

PnL

+$9.51

Record

54%

3914-3284 (7198)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$217.92

Value

$399.34

PnL

+$181.42

Record

58%

3901-2845 (6746)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$391.95

Value

$391.56

PnL

-$0.39

Record

52%

1489-1357 (2846)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$75.06

Value

$96.22

PnL

+$27.21

Record

60%

3996-2713 (6709)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$101.6

Value

$76.09

PnL

+$13.35

Record

51%

2371-2247 (4618)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$16.8

Value

$30

PnL

+$13.2

Record

51%

1558-1472 (3030)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$17.2

Value

$30

PnL

+$12.8

Record

52%

1562-1470 (3032)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$16.5

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$13.5

Record

51%

4806-4590 (9396)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$26.5

Value

$25

PnL

-$1.5

Record

51%

2031-1950 (3981)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$15.86

Value

$8.81

PnL

+$2.95

Record

54%

2550-2139 (4689)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$4.68

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$0.57

Record

44%

1317-1660 (2977)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.99

PnL

+$0.19

Record

46%

3106-3639 (6745)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR

Invested

$176.03

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$175.11

Record

43%

1909-2581 (4490)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.