Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Down (67%) · Down at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$46.53

Smart Money Entry

74.7¢ → 100¢

+34% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,886

Combined PnL+$173.58

Up4 traders

Total Value$28.32

Total Shares1,784

Combined PnL-$127.05

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$793.98	$801.6	+$7.62	98% 4120-86 (4206)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.6¢	$508.1	$497.94	+$3.34	54% 3871-3256 (7127)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 49.1¢	$194.22	$336.66	+$142.43	50% 3424-3398 (6822)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 90.6¢	$134.98	$148.93	+$13.95	58% 3890-2826 (6716)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 49.4¢	$27.52	$27.87	+$0.35	49% 1410-1488 (2898)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 50.1¢	$24.66	$24.59	-$0.07	51% 2012-1937 (3949)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 84¢	$20.87	$20.99	+$0.12	60% 3969-2697 (6666)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 76.5¢	$33.02	$10	+$5.69	51% 2355-2225 (4580)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 64.3¢	$7.26	$7.34	+$0.08	54% 2526-2126 (4652)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 57¢	$2.86	$2.83	-$0.03	44% 1307-1651 (2958)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR	Upavg 7.4¢	$127.77	$0.86	-$126.91	43% 1894-2540 (4434)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.08	$0.04	-$0.04	36% 1423-2510 (3933)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$793.98

Value

$801.6

PnL

+$7.62

Record

98%

4120-86 (4206)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$508.1

Value

$497.94

PnL

+$3.34

Record

54%

3871-3256 (7127)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$194.22

Value

$336.66

PnL

+$142.43

Record

50%

3424-3398 (6822)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$134.98

Value

$148.93

PnL

+$13.95

Record

58%

3890-2826 (6716)

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$27.52

Value

$27.87

PnL

+$0.35

Record

49%

1410-1488 (2898)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$24.66

Value

$24.59

PnL

-$0.07

Record

51%

2012-1937 (3949)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$20.87

Value

$20.99

PnL

+$0.12

Record

60%

3969-2697 (6666)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$33.02

Value

$10

PnL

+$5.69

Record

51%

2355-2225 (4580)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$7.26

Value

$7.34

PnL

+$0.08

Record

54%

2526-2126 (4652)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$2.86

Value

$2.83

PnL

-$0.03

Record

44%

1307-1651 (2958)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR

Invested

$127.77

Value

$0.86

PnL

-$126.91

Record

43%

1894-2540 (4434)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.04

Record

36%

1423-2510 (3933)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.