Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Down 79%
1 arb excluded
$3.0K
$286.67
Smart Money Signal
12 of 15 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Downavg 95.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$50.61 | 43% 1894-2540 (4434) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 74.3¢ | $636.97 | $752.14 | +$115.16 | 50% 3424-3398 (6822) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.9¢ | $514.58 | $500 | +$9.7 | 54% 3871-3256 (7127) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.9¢ | $254.4 | $500 | +$254.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $245.1 | — | -$245 | |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 56.5¢ | $62.4 | $110.42 | +$48.02 | 58% 3890-2826 (6716) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $146.03 | $147.5 | +$1.47 | 98% 4120-86 (4206) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $51.71 | $64 | +$12.29 | 51% 2355-2225 (4580) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 47.7¢ | $18.62 | $39 | +$20.38 | 49% 1410-1488 (2898) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 53.9¢ | $16.34 | $30.29 | +$13.95 | 44% 1307-1651 (2958) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 66.9¢ | $26.75 | $34.9 | +$8.15 | 54% 2526-2126 (4652) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 52.7¢ | $26.34 | — | -$26.34 | 51% 2012-1937 (3949) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $14.1 | $30 | +$15.9 | 52% 1551-1455 (3006) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $14.1 | $30 | +$15.9 | 51% 4792-4578 (9370) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $24.39 | $29.39 | +$5 | 60% 3969-2697 (6666) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $5.6 | — | -$5.6 | 46% 3088-3615 (6703) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $3.01 | — | -$3.01 | 50% 893-886 (1779) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 47.2¢ | $16.06 | $0.86 | +$14.79 | 51% 1543-1462 (3005) |
Invested
$1,131.51
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$50.61
Record
43%
1894-2540 (4434)
Invested
$636.97
Value
$752.14
PnL
+$115.16
Record
50%
3424-3398 (6822)
Invested
$514.58
Value
$500
PnL
+$9.7
Record
54%
3871-3256 (7127)
Both legs:
Invested
$62.4
Value
$110.42
PnL
+$48.02
Record
58%
3890-2826 (6716)
Invested
$146.03
Value
$147.5
PnL
+$1.47
Record
98%
4120-86 (4206)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$51.71
Value
$64
PnL
+$12.29
Record
51%
2355-2225 (4580)
Invested
$18.62
Value
$39
PnL
+$20.38
Record
49%
1410-1488 (2898)
Invested
$16.34
Value
$30.29
PnL
+$13.95
Record
44%
1307-1651 (2958)
Invested
$26.75
Value
$34.9
PnL
+$8.15
Record
54%
2526-2126 (4652)
Invested
$26.34
Value
—
PnL
-$26.34
Record
51%
2012-1937 (3949)
Invested
$14.1
Value
$30
PnL
+$15.9
Record
52%
1551-1455 (3006)
Invested
$14.1
Value
$30
PnL
+$15.9
Record
51%
4792-4578 (9370)
Invested
$24.39
Value
$29.39
PnL
+$5
Record
60%
3969-2697 (6666)
Invested
$5.6
Value
—
PnL
-$5.6
Record
46%
3088-3615 (6703)
Invested
$3.01
Value
—
PnL
-$3.01
Record
50%
893-886 (1779)
Invested
$16.06
Value
$0.86
PnL
+$14.79
Record
51%
1543-1462 (3005)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Down — $1.2K
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $752.14
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $110.42
hoodquant
Down — $147.5
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $64
PBot-5
Down — $39
13897651
Down — $30.29
ply-pm2
Down — $34.9
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0