Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 87% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Down 87%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
-$310.42
Smart Money Signal
13 of 15 top traders (87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51¢ | $515.28 | $500 | +$6.8 | 54% 3871-3256 (7127) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 48.2¢ | $192.95 | $400 | +$207.05 | 58% 3890-2826 (6716) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 59.7¢ | $422.13 | $390.43 | -$0.68 | 50% 3424-3398 (6822) |
AA aaa221 | Downavg 62.1¢ | $95.49 | $119.99 | +$37.49 | 60% 3969-2697 (6666) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 60.4¢ | $113.38 | $85 | +$7.45 | 54% 2526-2126 (4652) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.4¢ | $51.32 | $85 | +$32.45 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 29¢ | $26.3 | — | -$25 | |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 56.5¢ | $28.26 | $50 | +$21.74 | 51% 2355-2225 (4580) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 46.3¢ | $14.22 | $30.72 | +$16.5 | 48% 2352-2543 (4895) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $24 | $30 | +$6 | 51% 1543-1462 (3005) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $21 | $30 | +$9 | 52% 1551-1455 (3006) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $21 | $30 | +$9 | 51% 4792-4578 (9370) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 63.4¢ | $15 | $16.31 | +$4.61 | 44% 1307-1651 (2958) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $9.9 | $10 | +$0.1 | 98% 4120-86 (4206) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 51.1¢ | $11.21 | — | -$11.21 | 46% 3088-3615 (6703) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $5.88 | $6 | +$0.12 | 50% 2621-2631 (5252) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR | Upavg 34¢ | $617.64 | — | -$617.64 | 43% 1894-2540 (4434) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $0.7 | $1.4 | +$0.7 | 44% 2263-2898 (5161) |
Invested
$515.28
Value
$500
PnL
+$6.8
Record
54%
3871-3256 (7127)
Invested
$192.95
Value
$400
PnL
+$207.05
Record
58%
3890-2826 (6716)
Invested
$422.13
Value
$390.43
PnL
-$0.68
Record
50%
3424-3398 (6822)
Invested
$95.49
Value
$119.99
PnL
+$37.49
Record
60%
3969-2697 (6666)
Invested
$113.38
Value
$85
PnL
+$7.45
Record
54%
2526-2126 (4652)
Both legs:
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$28.26
Value
$50
PnL
+$21.74
Record
51%
2355-2225 (4580)
Invested
$14.22
Value
$30.72
PnL
+$16.5
Record
48%
2352-2543 (4895)
Invested
$24
Value
$30
PnL
+$6
Record
51%
1543-1462 (3005)
Invested
$21
Value
$30
PnL
+$9
Record
52%
1551-1455 (3006)
Invested
$21
Value
$30
PnL
+$9
Record
51%
4792-4578 (9370)
Invested
$15
Value
$16.31
PnL
+$4.61
Record
44%
1307-1651 (2958)
Invested
$9.9
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.1
Record
98%
4120-86 (4206)
Invested
$11.21
Value
—
PnL
-$11.21
Record
46%
3088-3615 (6703)
Invested
$5.88
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.12
Record
50%
2621-2631 (5252)
Invested
$617.64
Value
—
PnL
-$617.64
Record
43%
1894-2540 (4434)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$0.7
Value
$1.4
PnL
+$0.7
Record
44%
2263-2898 (5161)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
Down — $500
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $400
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $390.43
aaa221
Down — $119.99
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $50
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $30.72
mo-money
Down — $30
almach
Down — $30
bosona
Down — $30