Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET

15 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Down (88%) · Down at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 88%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$218.41

Smart Money Entry

58.8¢ → 99.5¢

+69% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 17 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,052

Combined PnL+$224

Up2 traders

Total Value$501.86

Total Shares1,623

Combined PnL-$5.58

Down — 88%Up — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 39.5¢	$393.68	$562.22	+$168.54	50% 3397-3361 (6758)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.3¢	$509.25	$499.57	+$9.57	54% 3849-3219 (7068)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR	Upavg 30.8¢	$488.75	$483.73	-$5.02	43% 1879-2519 (4398)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.1¢	$365.2	$340.68	-$24.52	98% 4086-84 (4170)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 63.8¢	$164.2	$186.01	+$45.89	58% 3865-2801 (6666)
13 13897651	Downavg 48.8¢	$129.89	$142.58	+$12.68	44% 1294-1645 (2939)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 60¢	$69.27	$42.35	-$22.44	60% 3949-2687 (6636)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 69¢	$20.7	$21.15	+$0.45	47% 2348-2603 (4951)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 77.2¢	$20.99	$21.07	+$0.08	44% 2246-2882 (5128)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$18.69	$18.13	-$0.56	46% 3071-3598 (6669)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 41.3¢	$16.92	$15.48	+$5.53	54% 2509-2112 (4621)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 64.7¢	$45.1	$14.34	+$22.7	51% 2336-2212 (4548)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 41.5¢	$12	$14.33	+$2.33	48% 2338-2522 (4860)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 79¢	$11.85	$11.63	-$0.22	47% 2247-2492 (4739)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 53¢	$5.3	$7.75	+$2.45	70% 1721-726 (2447)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 57¢	$3	$4.08	+$1.08	50% 2598-2611 (5209)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 35¢	$2.8	$2.68	-$0.12	52% 1539-1442 (2981)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$393.68

Value

$562.22

PnL

+$168.54

Record

50%

3397-3361 (6758)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$509.25

Value

$499.57

PnL

+$9.57

Record

54%

3849-3219 (7068)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR

Invested

$488.75

Value

$483.73

PnL

-$5.02

Record

43%

1879-2519 (4398)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$365.2

Value

$340.68

PnL

-$24.52

Record

98%

4086-84 (4170)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$164.2

Value

$186.01

PnL

+$45.89

Record

58%

3865-2801 (6666)

13897651

Down

Invested

$129.89

Value

$142.58

PnL

+$12.68

Record

44%

1294-1645 (2939)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$69.27

Value

$42.35

PnL

-$22.44

Record

60%

3949-2687 (6636)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$20.7

Value

$21.15

PnL

+$0.45

Record

47%

2348-2603 (4951)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$20.99

Value

$21.07

PnL

+$0.08

Record

44%

2246-2882 (5128)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$18.69

Value

$18.13

PnL

-$0.56

Record

46%

3071-3598 (6669)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$16.92

Value

$15.48

PnL

+$5.53

Record

54%

2509-2112 (4621)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$45.1

Value

$14.34

PnL

+$22.7

Record

51%

2336-2212 (4548)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$12

Value

$14.33

PnL

+$2.33

Record

48%

2338-2522 (4860)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$11.85

Value

$11.63

PnL

-$0.22

Record

47%

2247-2492 (4739)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$5.3

Value

$7.75

PnL

+$2.45

Record

70%

1721-726 (2447)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$4.08

PnL

+$1.08

Record

50%

2598-2611 (5209)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.68

PnL

-$0.12

Record

52%

1539-1442 (2981)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 17 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.