Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Down 57%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
-$265.73
Smart Money Signal
8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.5¢ | $983.14 | $998 | +$14.86 | 98% 4086-84 (4170) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $504.8 | $504 | +$7.22 | 54% 3849-3219 (7068) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $245 | — | -$244.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $251.8 | $504 | +$252.02 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 11.5¢ | $219.02 | — | -$191.94 | 50% 3397-3361 (6758) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Upavg 47.9¢ | $42.63 | — | -$42.63 | 44% 1294-1645 (2939) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $11.7 | $30 | +$18.3 | 44% 2246-2882 (5128) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 60.2¢ | $66.82 | — | -$31.85 | 54% 2509-2112 (4621) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 74.4¢ | $67.1 | $25 | +$12.3 | 51% 2336-2212 (4548) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $24.98 | $25 | +$0.02 | 52% 1470-1346 (2816) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $13.5 | $30 | +$16.5 | 47% 2247-2492 (4739) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 41.5¢ | $5.39 | $12.97 | +$7.59 | 48% 2338-2522 (4860) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 53.4¢ | $7.27 | $13.61 | +$6.34 | 60% 3949-2687 (6636) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $6.51 | $14.77 | +$8.26 | 47% 2348-2603 (4951) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $2.8 | — | -$2.8 | 46% 3071-3598 (6669) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 6.4¢ | $22.68 | — | -$22.68 | 43% 1879-2519 (4398) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | $58 | — | -$58 | 58% 3865-2801 (6666) |
Invested
$983.14
Value
$998
PnL
+$14.86
Record
98%
4086-84 (4170)
Invested
$504.8
Value
$504
PnL
+$7.22
Record
54%
3849-3219 (7068)
Both legs:
Invested
$219.02
Value
—
PnL
-$191.94
Record
50%
3397-3361 (6758)
Invested
$42.63
Value
—
PnL
-$42.63
Record
44%
1294-1645 (2939)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$11.7
Value
$30
PnL
+$18.3
Record
44%
2246-2882 (5128)
Invested
$66.82
Value
—
PnL
-$31.85
Record
54%
2509-2112 (4621)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$67.1
Value
$25
PnL
+$12.3
Record
51%
2336-2212 (4548)
Invested
$24.98
Value
$25
PnL
+$0.02
Record
52%
1470-1346 (2816)
ohioism<$100Invested
$13.5
Value
$30
PnL
+$16.5
Record
47%
2247-2492 (4739)
Invested
$5.39
Value
$12.97
PnL
+$7.59
Record
48%
2338-2522 (4860)
Invested
$7.27
Value
$13.61
PnL
+$6.34
Record
60%
3949-2687 (6636)
Invested
$6.51
Value
$14.77
PnL
+$8.26
Record
47%
2348-2603 (4951)
Invested
$2.8
Value
—
PnL
-$2.8
Record
46%
3071-3598 (6669)
Invested
$22.68
Value
—
PnL
-$22.68
Record
43%
1879-2519 (4398)
Invested
$58
Value
—
PnL
-$58
Record
58%
3865-2801 (6666)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $998
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
13897651
CTRUp — $0
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $30
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $25
0x50f7
Down — $25
ohioism
Down — $30
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $12.97