Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 25% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
16
Up 27%
2 arb excluded
$890.38
-$779.88
Smart Money Signal
4 of 16 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 45.3¢ | $682.77 | — | -$659.88 | 50% 3397-3361 (6758) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $519.42 | $506.78 | +$5.67 | 54% 3849-3219 (7068) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $253.14 | $506.78 | +$251.77 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.6¢ | $250.39 | — | -$246.1 | |
 ohioism | Downavg 69.6¢ | $69.58 | $100 | +$30.42 | 47% 2247-2492 (4739) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 54.1¢ | $118.34 | $91.07 | -$6.39 | 54% 2509-2112 (4621) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.1¢ | $49.27 | $91.07 | +$45.08 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.4¢ | $46.65 | — | -$51.47 | |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $27.53 | $27.47 | -$0.06 | 44% 1294-1645 (2939) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $13.75 | $28.65 | +$14.9 | 70% 1721-726 (2447) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 15¢ | $8.8 | — | -$8.8 | 47% 2348-2603 (4951) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 18¢ | $7.03 | $37.67 | +$30.95 | 60% 3949-2687 (6636) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 75.3¢ | $71.8 | $15 | -$0.05 | 51% 2336-2212 (4548) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 18¢ | $5.4 | $30 | +$24.6 | 52% 1539-1442 (2981) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 65.4¢ | $12.12 | $16.73 | +$4.61 | 50% 2598-2611 (5209) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $4.3 | $10 | +$5.7 | 44% 2246-2882 (5128) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 34.5¢ | $5.87 | — | -$5.87 | 43% 1879-2519 (4398) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 18¢ | $2.16 | $12 | +$9.84 | 51% 4780-4566 (9346) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $4.8 | $10 | +$5.2 | 50% 889-885 (1774) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $5 | +$2.7 | 48% 2338-2522 (4860) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR | Upavg 63.6¢ | $262.73 | — | -$255.73 | 58% 3865-2801 (6666) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 18¢ | $8.4 | — | +$21.6 | 51% 1530-1451 (2981) |
Invested
$682.77
Value
—
PnL
-$659.88
Record
50%
3397-3361 (6758)
Invested
$519.42
Value
$506.78
PnL
+$5.67
Record
54%
3849-3219 (7068)
Both legs:
ohioismInvested
$69.58
Value
$100
PnL
+$30.42
Record
47%
2247-2492 (4739)
Invested
$118.34
Value
$91.07
PnL
-$6.39
Record
54%
2509-2112 (4621)
Both legs:
Invested
$27.53
Value
$27.47
PnL
-$0.06
Record
44%
1294-1645 (2939)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$13.75
Value
$28.65
PnL
+$14.9
Record
70%
1721-726 (2447)
Invested
$8.8
Value
—
PnL
-$8.8
Record
47%
2348-2603 (4951)
Invested
$7.03
Value
$37.67
PnL
+$30.95
Record
60%
3949-2687 (6636)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$71.8
Value
$15
PnL
-$0.05
Record
51%
2336-2212 (4548)
Invested
$5.4
Value
$30
PnL
+$24.6
Record
52%
1539-1442 (2981)
Invested
$12.12
Value
$16.73
PnL
+$4.61
Record
50%
2598-2611 (5209)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$4.3
Value
$10
PnL
+$5.7
Record
44%
2246-2882 (5128)
Invested
$5.87
Value
—
PnL
-$5.87
Record
43%
1879-2519 (4398)
Invested
$2.16
Value
$12
PnL
+$9.84
Record
51%
4780-4566 (9346)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$10
PnL
+$5.2
Record
50%
889-885 (1774)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.7
Record
48%
2338-2522 (4860)
Invested
$262.73
Value
—
PnL
-$255.73
Record
58%
3865-2801 (6666)
Invested
$8.4
Value
—
PnL
+$21.6
Record
51%
1530-1451 (2981)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ohioism
Down — $100
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
13897651
Down — $27.47
BoneOhio
Down — $28.65
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
Down — $37.67
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $15
almach
Down — $30