Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (78%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (67%) · Down at 23¢ · $777 held · ends Nov 15

Up78¢Down22¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$776.54

Combined PnL

$5.54

Smart Money Entry

44.2¢ → 22.5¢

-49% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Up 78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up78%

Down23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$116.13

Total Shares241

Combined PnL+$2.13

Up3 traders

Total Value$59.71

Total Shares77

Combined PnL+$3.41

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$509.4	$500	+$1.2	54% 3808-3199 (7007)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$249.31	$252.5	+$3.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250.1	$247.5	-$1.9
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 46.2¢	$105.43	$100.7	-$4.72	50% 3372-3320 (6692)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.2¢	$72.78	$62.96	-$9.81
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.9¢	$32.65	$37.74	+$5.09
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Downavg 43.1¢	$49.51	$46	-$3.51	58% 3808-2767 (6575)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 54.2¢	$41.45	$43.88	+$2.44	54% 2490-2100 (4590)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 48.2¢	$21.95	$21.38	-$0.57	51% 2323-2193 (4516)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$14.7	$15.45	+$0.75	47% 2226-2478 (4704)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 43¢	$12.9	$15.15	+$2.25	51% 4768-4559 (9327)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 43¢	$12.9	$15.15	+$2.25	51% 1517-1445 (2962)
PB PBot-5<$100	Upavg 46¢	$11.5	$12.5	+$1	49% 1381-1459 (2840)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 67¢	$3.35	$3.33	-$0.02	44% 1281-1640 (2921)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 34¢	$2.04	$3	+$0.96	43% 1865-2503 (4368)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$509.4

Value

$500

PnL

+$1.2

Record

54%

3808-3199 (7007)

Both legs:

Down$249.3149.9¢+$3.1

Up$250.150¢-$1.9

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$105.43

Value

$100.7

PnL

-$4.72

Record

50%

3372-3320 (6692)

Both legs:

Down$72.7846.2¢-$9.81

Up$32.6551.9¢+$5.09

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$49.51

Value

$46

PnL

-$3.51

Record

58%

3808-2767 (6575)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$41.45

Value

$43.88

PnL

+$2.44

Record

54%

2490-2100 (4590)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$21.95

Value

$21.38

PnL

-$0.57

Record

51%

2323-2193 (4516)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.7

Value

$15.45

PnL

+$0.75

Record

47%

2226-2478 (4704)

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12.9

Value

$15.15

PnL

+$2.25

Record

51%

4768-4559 (9327)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12.9

Value

$15.15

PnL

+$2.25

Record

51%

1517-1445 (2962)

PBot-5<$100

Invested

$11.5

Value

$12.5

PnL

+$1

Record

49%

1381-1459 (2840)

13897651<$100

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.33

PnL

-$0.02

Record

44%

1281-1640 (2921)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.04

Value

PnL

+$0.96

Record

43%

1865-2503 (4368)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Up 78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.8%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$303.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

403.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.