Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Down (64%) · Down at 72¢ · $884 held · ends Nov 15

Up28¢Down72¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$884.26

Combined PnL

$41.76

Smart Money Entry

58.8¢ → 71.5¢

+22% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up28%

Down72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$216.7

Total Shares316

Combined PnL+$55.56

Down7 traders

Total Value$167.56

Total Shares235

Combined PnL-$13.8

Up — 36%Down — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.7¢	$531.62	$500	-$12.4	54% 3763-3169 (6932)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.7¢	$253.36	$262.5	+$5.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.6¢	$252.94	$237.5	-$17.5
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 34.7¢	$81	$130.1	+$49.1	51% 3341-3263 (6604)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 63.9¢	$56.38	$50.92	-$5.46	54% 2461-2088 (4549)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 40.1¢	$35.15	$39.23	+$4.08	44% 1266-1632 (2898)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 56.1¢	$36.81	$34.03	-$2.78	51% 1975-1916 (3891)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 52¢	$26.95	$24.61	-$2.34	47% 2305-2557 (4862)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Upavg 44¢	$18.04	$22.76	+$4.72	49% 1355-1438 (2793)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 62.3¢	$26.79	$22.58	-$4.22	47% 2198-2452 (4650)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 39¢	$16.23	$20.08	+$3.85	58% 3775-2737 (6512)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 65.1¢	$25.17	$18.08	-$4.53	48% 2280-2489 (4769)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 66¢	$17.03	$13.55	-$3.48	44% 2198-2839 (5037)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Downavg 46¢	$5.52	$8.34	+$2.82	42% 1826-2483 (4309)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$531.62

Value

$500

PnL

-$12.4

Record

54%

3763-3169 (6932)

Both legs:

Down$253.3650.7¢+$5.1

Up$252.9450.6¢-$17.5

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$81

Value

$130.1

PnL

+$49.1

Record

51%

3341-3263 (6604)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$56.38

Value

$50.92

PnL

-$5.46

Record

54%

2461-2088 (4549)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$35.15

Value

$39.23

PnL

+$4.08

Record

44%

1266-1632 (2898)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$36.81

Value

$34.03

PnL

-$2.78

Record

51%

1975-1916 (3891)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$26.95

Value

$24.61

PnL

-$2.34

Record

47%

2305-2557 (4862)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Invested

$18.04

Value

$22.76

PnL

+$4.72

Record

49%

1355-1438 (2793)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$26.79

Value

$22.58

PnL

-$4.22

Record

47%

2198-2452 (4650)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Down

Invested

$16.23

Value

$20.08

PnL

+$3.85

Record

58%

3775-2737 (6512)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$25.17

Value

$18.08

PnL

-$4.53

Record

48%

2280-2489 (4769)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$17.03

Value

$13.55

PnL

-$3.48

Record

44%

2198-2839 (5037)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Down

Invested

$5.52

Value

$8.34

PnL

+$2.82

Record

42%

1826-2483 (4309)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 72%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.9%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.