Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
9
Down 67%
2 arb excluded
$1.5K
-$213.32
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 62.9¢ | $313.06 | $497.63 | +$184.57 | 58% 3775-2737 (6512) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $508.38 | $490 | -$7.07 | 54% 3763-3169 (6932) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.1¢ | $245.59 | $490 | +$245.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $252.77 | — | -$252.77 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.8¢ | $350.4 | $354.74 | +$4.34 | 98% 3999-84 (4083) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 23.1¢ | $394.74 | — | -$394.74 | 51% 3341-3263 (6604) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 58.6¢ | $65.56 | $67.76 | +$2.2 | 44% 1266-1632 (2898) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 56.4¢ | $68.79 | $50 | -$18.79 | 52% 2308-2166 (4474) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.2¢ | $27.1 | $50 | +$22.9 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.4¢ | $41.69 | — | -$41.69 | |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $55.56 | $48 | -$6.62 | 70% 1689-707 (2396) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $17.73 | — | -$8.88 | 60% 3891-2648 (6539) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $10.2 | $15.22 | +$5.02 | 48% 2280-2489 (4769) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $5.5 | $10 | +$4.5 | 51% 1975-1916 (3891) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 38.6¢ | $26.92 | — | -$3.7 | 54% 2461-2088 (4549) |
Invested
$313.06
Value
$497.63
PnL
+$184.57
Record
58%
3775-2737 (6512)
Invested
$508.38
Value
$490
PnL
-$7.07
Record
54%
3763-3169 (6932)
Both legs:
Invested
$350.4
Value
$354.74
PnL
+$4.34
Record
98%
3999-84 (4083)
Invested
$394.74
Value
—
PnL
-$394.74
Record
51%
3341-3263 (6604)
Invested
$65.56
Value
$67.76
PnL
+$2.2
Record
44%
1266-1632 (2898)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$68.79
Value
$50
PnL
-$18.79
Record
52%
2308-2166 (4474)
Both legs:
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$55.56
Value
$48
PnL
-$6.62
Record
70%
1689-707 (2396)
Invested
$17.73
Value
—
PnL
-$8.88
Record
60%
3891-2648 (6539)
Invested
$10.2
Value
$15.22
PnL
+$5.02
Record
48%
2280-2489 (4769)
Invested
$5.5
Value
$10
PnL
+$4.5
Record
51%
1975-1916 (3891)
Invested
$26.92
Value
—
PnL
-$3.7
Record
54%
2461-2088 (4549)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $497.63
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $354.74
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
13897651
Down — $67.76
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
BoneOhio
Down — $48
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $15.22
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $10