Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET

16 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Down (84%) · Down at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 84%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$309.98

Smart Money Entry

75.4¢ → 100¢

+33% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 19 top traders (84%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,571

Combined PnL+$233.81

Up3 traders

Total Value$1.93

Total Shares3,856

Combined PnL-$543.79

Down — 84%Up — 16%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 77.3¢	$598.79	$654.4	+$55.6	51% 3277-3198 (6475)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 51.5¢	$522.96	$498.75	+$4.99	54% 3695-3113 (6808)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 79.5¢	$387.53	$429.48	+$76.08	58% 3734-2702 (6436)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.9¢	$355.89	$359.82	+$3.93	98% 3919-84 (4003)
AA aaa221	Downavg 80.5¢	$120.77	$106.75	+$3.22	59% 3835-2614 (6449)
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 79.8¢	$138.16	$84.55	+$2.52	54% 2422-2063 (4485)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 91.4¢	$125.98	$81.6	-$7.73	52% 2275-2131 (4406)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 68.2¢	$49.08	$71.93	+$22.86	70% 1655-694 (2349)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 64.8¢	$60.99	$67.68	+$12.01	44% 1244-1613 (2857)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 82.1¢	$45.15	$54.97	+$9.82	48% 2240-2454 (4694)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 68.1¢	$31.2	$38.25	+$7.05	44% 2169-2794 (4963)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 51.6¢	$18.75	$33.75	+$15	51% 4729-4529 (9258)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 92.1¢	$31.13	$31.34	+$1.44	50% 2497-2540 (5037)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 85¢	$52.2	$26.85	+$14.55	51% 1479-1409 (2888)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 53¢	$17.1	$20	+$12.3	51% 1473-1419 (2892)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 48.4¢	$5.7	$5.89	+$0.19	49% 1332-1414 (2746)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 12.7¢	$340.29	$1.34	-$338.95	49% 2352-2415 (4767)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR	Upavg 16.5¢	$181.35	$0.55	-$180.79	42% 1769-2426 (4195)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 33.4¢	$24.08	$0.04	-$24.04	47% 2170-2411 (4581)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$598.79

Value

$654.4

PnL

+$55.6

Record

51%

3277-3198 (6475)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$522.96

Value

$498.75

PnL

+$4.99

Record

54%

3695-3113 (6808)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$387.53

Value

$429.48

PnL

+$76.08

Record

58%

3734-2702 (6436)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$355.89

Value

$359.82

PnL

+$3.93

Record

98%

3919-84 (4003)

aaa221

Down

Invested

$120.77

Value

$106.75

PnL

+$3.22

Record

59%

3835-2614 (6449)

ply-pm2

Down

Invested

$138.16

Value

$84.55

PnL

+$2.52

Record

54%

2422-2063 (4485)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$125.98

Value

$81.6

PnL

-$7.73

Record

52%

2275-2131 (4406)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$49.08

Value

$71.93

PnL

+$22.86

Record

70%

1655-694 (2349)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$60.99

Value

$67.68

PnL

+$12.01

Record

44%

1244-1613 (2857)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$45.15

Value

$54.97

PnL

+$9.82

Record

48%

2240-2454 (4694)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$31.2

Value

$38.25

PnL

+$7.05

Record

44%

2169-2794 (4963)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$18.75

Value

$33.75

PnL

+$15

Record

51%

4729-4529 (9258)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$31.13

Value

$31.34

PnL

+$1.44

Record

50%

2497-2540 (5037)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$52.2

Value

$26.85

PnL

+$14.55

Record

51%

1479-1409 (2888)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$17.1

Value

$20

PnL

+$12.3

Record

51%

1473-1419 (2892)

PBot-5<$100

Down

Invested

$5.7

Value

$5.89

PnL

+$0.19

Record

49%

1332-1414 (2746)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$340.29

Value

$1.34

PnL

-$338.95

Record

49%

2352-2415 (4767)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR

Invested

$181.35

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$180.79

Record

42%

1769-2426 (4195)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$24.08

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$24.04

Record

47%

2170-2411 (4581)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 19 top traders (84%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.