Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
20
Down 75%
2 arb excluded
$3.5K
-$118.04
Smart Money Signal
15 of 20 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 78.1¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$108.11 | 51% 3277-3198 (6475) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 71¢ | $546.94 | $770.79 | +$223.85 | 49% 2352-2415 (4767) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.3¢ | $506.33 | $490 | +$7.6 | 54% 3695-3113 (6808) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.3¢ | $246.7 | — | -$246.4 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.9¢ | $244.71 | $490 | +$254 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.8¢ | $448.44 | $454 | +$5.56 | 98% 3919-84 (4003) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $235.12 | $235.36 | +$0.24 | 52% 1431-1332 (2763) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 91.9¢ | $147.17 | $115.02 | -$1.88 | 52% 2275-2131 (4406) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100 | Downavg 73.5¢ | $84.27 | $62.56 | +$26.75 | 58% 3734-2702 (6436) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 77.2¢ | $55.69 | $59.99 | +$4.3 | 54% 2422-2063 (4485) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 77.2¢ | $46.3 | $59.99 | +$13.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 18.8¢ | $9.4 | — | -$9.4 | |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 71.7¢ | $80.64 | $74.56 | +$23.51 | 59% 3835-2614 (6449) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 71.3¢ | $29.88 | $28 | -$1.87 | 44% 1244-1613 (2857) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $20.7 | $30 | +$9.3 | 51% 1479-1409 (2888) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $21.9 | $30 | +$8.1 | 51% 4729-4529 (9258) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 82.4¢ | $8.85 | $10.74 | +$1.89 | 50% 2497-2540 (5037) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 17.2¢ | $23.3 | — | -$14.2 | 44% 2169-2794 (4963) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $9.43 | — | -$9.43 | 51% 1955-1898 (3853) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $10.8 | $15 | +$4.2 | 70% 1655-694 (2349) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 43.9¢ | $4.79 | $10.91 | +$6.12 | 50% 848-846 (1694) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $4.26 | $5.26 | +$1 | 51% 1473-1419 (2892) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $2.51 | $5.01 | +$2.51 | 47% 2261-2522 (4783) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR | Upavg 27.9¢ | $507.85 | — | -$507.85 | 42% 1769-2426 (4195) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 37% 1396-2392 (3788) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 13¢ | $3.9 | — | -$3.9 | 47% 2170-2411 (4581) |
Invested
$1,015.08
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$108.11
Record
51%
3277-3198 (6475)
Invested
$546.94
Value
$770.79
PnL
+$223.85
Record
49%
2352-2415 (4767)
Invested
$506.33
Value
$490
PnL
+$7.6
Record
54%
3695-3113 (6808)
Both legs:
Invested
$448.44
Value
$454
PnL
+$5.56
Record
98%
3919-84 (4003)
Invested
$235.12
Value
$235.36
PnL
+$0.24
Record
52%
1431-1332 (2763)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$147.17
Value
$115.02
PnL
-$1.88
Record
52%
2275-2131 (4406)
Invested
$84.27
Value
$62.56
PnL
+$26.75
Record
58%
3734-2702 (6436)
Invested
$55.69
Value
$59.99
PnL
+$4.3
Record
54%
2422-2063 (4485)
Both legs:
Invested
$80.64
Value
$74.56
PnL
+$23.51
Record
59%
3835-2614 (6449)
Invested
$29.88
Value
$28
PnL
-$1.87
Record
44%
1244-1613 (2857)
Invested
$20.7
Value
$30
PnL
+$9.3
Record
51%
1479-1409 (2888)
Invested
$21.9
Value
$30
PnL
+$8.1
Record
51%
4729-4529 (9258)
Invested
$8.85
Value
$10.74
PnL
+$1.89
Record
50%
2497-2540 (5037)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$23.3
Value
—
PnL
-$14.2
Record
44%
2169-2794 (4963)
Invested
$9.43
Value
—
PnL
-$9.43
Record
51%
1955-1898 (3853)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$10.8
Value
$15
PnL
+$4.2
Record
70%
1655-694 (2349)
Invested
$4.79
Value
$10.91
PnL
+$6.12
Record
50%
848-846 (1694)
Invested
$4.26
Value
$5.26
PnL
+$1
Record
51%
1473-1419 (2892)
Invested
$2.51
Value
$5.01
PnL
+$2.51
Record
47%
2261-2522 (4783)
Invested
$507.85
Value
—
PnL
-$507.85
Record
42%
1769-2426 (4195)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
37%
1396-2392 (3788)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$3.9
Value
—
PnL
-$3.9
Record
47%
2170-2411 (4581)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $1.1K
uninformedfloww
Down — $770.79
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $454
0x50f7
Down — $235.36
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $115.02
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $62.56
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aaa221
Down — $74.56
13897651
Down — $28