Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 6 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET

6 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Down (35%) · Down at 0.5¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 35%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$641.06

Smart Money Entry

37.4¢ → 0.5¢

-99% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 17 top traders (35%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,792

Combined PnL-$634.66

Up11 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,974

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Down — 35%Up — 65%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Downavg 56.8¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$423.45	51% 3248-3166 (6414)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 76.8¢	$761.83	$549.2	-$33.82	58% 3692-2676 (6368)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50.4¢	$520.43	$495.44	-$1.56	54% 3632-3064 (6696)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 24.1¢	$729.23	$486.3	-$202.63	49% 2317-2371 (4688)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 20.9¢	$368.22	$260.7	+$1.2K	42% 1736-2377 (4113)
PL ply-pm2	Upavg 66.4¢	$169.19	$160.64	+$2.99	54% 2390-2039 (4429)
13 13897651	Upavg 48.5¢	$90.9	$117.12	+$26.51	44% 1229-1596 (2825)
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 64.8¢	$77.64	$100.01	+$22.87	44% 2131-2751 (4882)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 43.2¢	$30.26	$69.65	+$39.39	48% 2195-2413 (4608)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 69.2¢	$60.53	$49.62	-$1.11	52% 2247-2098 (4345)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 45.6¢	$34.1	$39.87	+$8.24	47% 2230-2478 (4708)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Downavg 51.2¢	$29.76	$29.08	-$0.68	49% 1304-1382 (2686)
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 36¢	$8.4	$23.21	+$14.81	71% 1635-682 (2317)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 40¢	$3.45	$6.08	+$2.63	50% 2462-2507 (4969)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 20.1¢	$36.47	$3.19	-$7.86	47% 2139-2368 (4507)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$2.88	$2.94	+$0.06	50% 832-828 (1660)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 51¢	$2.65	$2.55	-$0.1	51% 1455-1389 (2844)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Down

Invested

$1,739.3

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$423.45

Record

51%

3248-3166 (6414)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$761.83

Value

$549.2

PnL

-$33.82

Record

58%

3692-2676 (6368)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$520.43

Value

$495.44

PnL

-$1.56

Record

54%

3632-3064 (6696)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$729.23

Value

$486.3

PnL

-$202.63

Record

49%

2317-2371 (4688)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$368.22

Value

$260.7

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

42%

1736-2377 (4113)

ply-pm2

Invested

$169.19

Value

$160.64

PnL

+$2.99

Record

54%

2390-2039 (4429)

13897651

Invested

$90.9

Value

$117.12

PnL

+$26.51

Record

44%

1229-1596 (2825)

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$77.64

Value

$100.01

PnL

+$22.87

Record

44%

2131-2751 (4882)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$30.26

Value

$69.65

PnL

+$39.39

Record

48%

2195-2413 (4608)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$60.53

Value

$49.62

PnL

-$1.11

Record

52%

2247-2098 (4345)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$34.1

Value

$39.87

PnL

+$8.24

Record

47%

2230-2478 (4708)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$29.76

Value

$29.08

PnL

-$0.68

Record

49%

1304-1382 (2686)

BoneOhio<$100

Invested

$8.4

Value

$23.21

PnL

+$14.81

Record

71%

1635-682 (2317)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$3.45

Value

$6.08

PnL

+$2.63

Record

50%

2462-2507 (4969)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$36.47

Value

$3.19

PnL

-$7.86

Record

47%

2139-2368 (4507)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.88

Value

$2.94

PnL

+$0.06

Record

50%

832-828 (1660)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.55

PnL

-$0.1

Record

51%

1455-1389 (2844)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 17 top traders (35%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6136.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

6236.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.