Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 84¢ · $838 held · ends Nov 14

Up16¢Down84¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$837.84

Combined PnL

$40.54

Smart Money Entry

63¢ → 84¢

+33% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 9 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up16%

Down84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$338.67

Total Shares397

Combined PnL+$40.54

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$499.17	+$0.17	54% 3632-3064 (6696)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$362.5	+$112.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$248.48	$136.67	-$112.33
AS aswfadq1555	Downavg 78.8¢	$149.34	$127.87	-$21.47	50% 510-513 (1023)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 55.5¢	$69.82	$103.81	+$33.99	51% 3248-3166 (6414)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 51.1¢	$49.47	$76.02	+$26.55	58% 3692-2676 (6368)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 78.3¢	$15.65	$16.3	+$0.65	52% 2247-2098 (4345)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 52¢	$5.2	$5	-$0.2	54% 2390-2039 (4429)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 42¢	$3.36	$4	+$0.64	50% 832-828 (1660)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 63¢	$3.2	$3.58	+$0.38	44% 1229-1596 (2825)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 50¢	$1.08	$1.08	+$0	59% 3783-2578 (6361)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 50¢	$1	$1	+$0	51% 1932-1885 (3817)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$499.17

PnL

+$0.17

Record

54%

3632-3064 (6696)

Both legs:

Invested

$149.34

Value

$127.87

PnL

-$21.47

Record

50%

510-513 (1023)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$69.82

Value

$103.81

PnL

+$33.99

Record

51%

3248-3166 (6414)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Down

Invested

$49.47

Value

$76.02

PnL

+$26.55

Record

58%

3692-2676 (6368)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$15.65

Value

$16.3

PnL

+$0.65

Record

52%

2247-2098 (4345)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$5.2

Value

PnL

-$0.2

Record

54%

2390-2039 (4429)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$3.36

Value

PnL

+$0.64

Record

50%

832-828 (1660)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.58

PnL

+$0.38

Record

44%

1229-1596 (2825)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.08

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3783-2578 (6361)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1932-1885 (3817)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 9 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.9%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.