Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Down (70%) · Down at 97¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Up3¢Down97¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 70%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$34.58

Smart Money Entry

81.3¢ → 96.8¢

+19% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 10 top traders (70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up3%

Down97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$651.47

Total Shares671

Combined PnL+$104.16

Up3 traders

Total Value$25.17

Total Shares1,503

Combined PnL-$69.59

Down — 70%Up — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$507.55	$499.99	+$4.8	54% 3579-3041 (6620)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$249.9	$347.49	+$99.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.5¢	$247.7	$152.5	-$95.1
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 68.3¢	$213.05	$308.86	+$95.81	58% 3662-2648 (6310)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$267.3	$266.36	-$0.94	98% 3813-79 (3892)
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Upavg 31.9¢	$195.18	$106.9	-$88.29	50% 507-506 (1013)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59¢	$42.8	$66.34	+$23.54
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.9¢	$152.38	$40.56	-$111.82
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 87.2¢	$112.3	$30.72	+$6.94	52% 2228-2078 (4306)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 66.8¢	$30.73	$24.03	+$2.32	54% 2366-2025 (4391)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 5.8¢	$86.41	$20.06	-$66.35	42% 1711-2331 (4042)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 71¢	$17.23	$17.11	-$0.12	59% 3751-2555 (6306)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 47¢	$4.43	$4.76	+$0.33	44% 2109-2719 (4828)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 48¢	$3.28	$3.42	+$0.14	50% 823-817 (1640)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 49¢	$0.96	$0.98	+$0.02	51% 1919-1881 (3800)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$3.92	$0.35	-$3.57	48% 2164-2388 (4552)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$507.55

Value

$499.99

PnL

+$4.8

Record

54%

3579-3041 (6620)

Both legs:

Down$249.950¢+$99.9

Up$247.749.5¢-$95.1

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$213.05

Value

$308.86

PnL

+$95.81

Record

58%

3662-2648 (6310)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$267.3

Value

$266.36

PnL

-$0.94

Record

98%

3813-79 (3892)

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Invested

$195.18

Value

$106.9

PnL

-$88.29

Record

50%

507-506 (1013)

Both legs:

Down$42.859¢+$23.54

Up$152.3831.9¢-$111.82

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$112.3

Value

$30.72

PnL

+$6.94

Record

52%

2228-2078 (4306)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$30.73

Value

$24.03

PnL

+$2.32

Record

54%

2366-2025 (4391)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$86.41

Value

$20.06

PnL

-$66.35

Record

42%

1711-2331 (4042)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$17.23

Value

$17.11

PnL

-$0.12

Record

59%

3751-2555 (6306)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$4.43

Value

$4.76

PnL

+$0.33

Record

44%

2109-2719 (4828)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$3.28

Value

$3.42

PnL

+$0.14

Record

50%

823-817 (1640)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$0.96

Value

$0.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

1919-1881 (3800)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$3.92

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$3.57

Record

48%

2164-2388 (4552)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 10 top traders (70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.0%

96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.