Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
16
Down 44%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
-$310.6
Smart Money Signal
7 of 16 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS aswfadq1555 | Upavg 44.4¢ | $732.12 | $826.44 | +$94.32 | 50% 507-506 (1013) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.6¢ | $511.44 | $490 | -$2.5 | 54% 3579-3041 (6620) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.8¢ | $243.82 | $490 | +$249 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.6¢ | $252.71 | — | -$251.5 | |
PL ply-pm2 | Upavg 79.2¢ | $119.8 | $90.21 | +$3.61 | 54% 2366-2025 (4391) |
AA aaa221 | Upavg 69.8¢ | $85.63 | $104.82 | +$30.57 | 59% 3751-2555 (6306) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Downavg 45.2¢ | $38.45 | — | -$38.45 | 48% 1266-1353 (2619) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 79.2¢ | $32.29 | $26.79 | -$5.5 | 47% 2202-2452 (4654) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 55.1¢ | $24.8 | $45 | +$20.2 | 51% 1914-1874 (3788) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 69.8¢ | $155.72 | $20 | +$9.47 | 52% 2228-2078 (4306) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Upavg 59¢ | $7.08 | $12 | +$4.92 | 42% 1711-2331 (4042) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 43.3¢ | $5.11 | — | -$5.11 | 50% 817-809 (1626) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $3.45 | $5 | +$1.55 | 48% 2164-2388 (4552) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 87¢ | $7.71 | $5.01 | -$2.7 | 43% 1215-1584 (2799) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $1.5 | — | -$1.5 | 51% 1429-1393 (2822) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 32.4¢ | $160.98 | — | -$160.98 | 49% 2292-2354 (4646) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR | Downavg 55.1¢ | $220.14 | — | -$220.14 | 58% 3662-2648 (6310) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 7.3¢ | $22.96 | — | -$22.96 | 44% 2109-2719 (4828) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 25.6¢ | $17.9 | — | -$17.9 | 47% 2109-2347 (4456) |
Invested
$732.12
Value
$826.44
PnL
+$94.32
Record
50%
507-506 (1013)
Invested
$511.44
Value
$490
PnL
-$2.5
Record
54%
3579-3041 (6620)
Both legs:
Invested
$119.8
Value
$90.21
PnL
+$3.61
Record
54%
2366-2025 (4391)
Invested
$85.63
Value
$104.82
PnL
+$30.57
Record
59%
3751-2555 (6306)
Invested
$38.45
Value
—
PnL
-$38.45
Record
48%
1266-1353 (2619)
Invested
$32.29
Value
$26.79
PnL
-$5.5
Record
47%
2202-2452 (4654)
Invested
$24.8
Value
$45
PnL
+$20.2
Record
51%
1914-1874 (3788)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$155.72
Value
$20
PnL
+$9.47
Record
52%
2228-2078 (4306)
Invested
$7.08
Value
$12
PnL
+$4.92
Record
42%
1711-2331 (4042)
Invested
$5.11
Value
—
PnL
-$5.11
Record
50%
817-809 (1626)
Invested
$3.45
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.55
Record
48%
2164-2388 (4552)
Invested
$7.71
Value
$5.01
PnL
-$2.7
Record
43%
1215-1584 (2799)
Invested
$1.5
Value
—
PnL
-$1.5
Record
51%
1429-1393 (2822)
Invested
$160.98
Value
—
PnL
-$160.98
Record
49%
2292-2354 (4646)
Invested
$220.14
Value
—
PnL
-$220.14
Record
58%
3662-2648 (6310)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$22.96
Value
—
PnL
-$22.96
Record
44%
2109-2719 (4828)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$17.9
Value
—
PnL
-$17.9
Record
47%
2109-2347 (4456)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
aswfadq1555
Up — $826.44
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
Up — $90.21
aaa221
Up — $104.82
PBot-5
CTRDown — $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up — $26.79
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $45
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $20
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Up — $12
PBot-6
CTRDown — $0