Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
12
Down 67%
2 arb excluded
$2.5K
$11.65
Smart Money Signal
8 of 12 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Downavg 84.3¢ | $645.2 | $378.69 | -$262.57 | 50% 507-506 (1013) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.5¢ | $311.8 | — | -$322.03 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 84.3¢ | $319.22 | $378.69 | +$59.47 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 63.8¢ | $391.68 | $531.43 | +$205.99 | 51% 3214-3142 (6356) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.8¢ | $339.21 | $531.43 | +$215.38 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 1.7¢ | $9.38 | — | -$9.38 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.8¢ | $952.03 | $963.48 | +$11.46 | 98% 3813-79 (3892) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.9¢ | $509.49 | $500 | -$1.8 | 54% 3579-3041 (6620) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 2.2¢ | $13.41 | — | -$13.41 | 42% 1711-2331 (4042) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $17.6 | $20 | +$2.4 | 59% 3751-2555 (6306) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $23.7 | $30 | +$6.3 | 71% 1617-670 (2287) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 95.2¢ | $90.58 | $15 | -$3.91 | 52% 2228-2078 (4306) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $53.05 | $10.07 | -$0.58 | 54% 2366-2025 (4391) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $4.8 | $9.8 | +$5 | 48% 2164-2388 (4552) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $3.72 | $5.64 | +$1.92 | 43% 1215-1584 (2799) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.8 | — | -$0.8 | 37% 1368-2322 (3690) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1 | — | -$1 | 50% 823-817 (1640) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Upavg 11.2¢ | $23.92 | — | +$6.08 | 58% 3662-2648 (6310) |
Invested
$645.2
Value
$378.69
PnL
-$262.57
Record
50%
507-506 (1013)
Both legs:
Invested
$391.68
Value
$531.43
PnL
+$205.99
Record
51%
3214-3142 (6356)
Both legs:
Invested
$952.03
Value
$963.48
PnL
+$11.46
Record
98%
3813-79 (3892)
Invested
$509.49
Value
$500
PnL
-$1.8
Record
54%
3579-3041 (6620)
Invested
$13.41
Value
—
PnL
-$13.41
Record
42%
1711-2331 (4042)
Invested
$17.6
Value
$20
PnL
+$2.4
Record
59%
3751-2555 (6306)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$23.7
Value
$30
PnL
+$6.3
Record
71%
1617-670 (2287)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$90.58
Value
$15
PnL
-$3.91
Record
52%
2228-2078 (4306)
Invested
$53.05
Value
$10.07
PnL
-$0.58
Record
54%
2366-2025 (4391)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$9.8
PnL
+$5
Record
48%
2164-2388 (4552)
Invested
$3.72
Value
$5.64
PnL
+$1.92
Record
43%
1215-1584 (2799)
Invested
$0.8
Value
—
PnL
-$0.8
Record
37%
1368-2322 (3690)
Invested
$1
Value
—
PnL
-$1
Record
50%
823-817 (1640)
Invested
$23.92
Value
—
PnL
+$6.08
Record
58%
3662-2648 (6310)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $963.48
ByteBadger92
Down — $500
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
Down — $20
BoneOhio
Down — $30
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $15
ply-pm2
Down — $10.07
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $9.8