Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (55%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Down (43%) · Down at 46¢ · $999 held · ends Nov 14

Up55¢Down45¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$999.47

Combined PnL

$24.11

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 45.5¢

-8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Up 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up55%

Down46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders

Total Value$301.87

Total Shares557

Combined PnL+$25.14

Up4 traders

Total Value$24.94

Total Shares57

Combined PnL-$1.03

Down — 43%Up — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.1¢	$502.76	$499.08	+$1.62	54% 3546-3013 (6559)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.1¢	$252.76	$310.43	+$57.67
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$245	$188.65	-$56.05
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Downavg 51.5¢	$159.6	$184.44	+$24.84	51% 3203-3131 (6334)
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Upavg 51¢	$217.63	$173.58	-$44.05	50% 502-503 (1005)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51¢	$184.93	$136.08	-$48.85
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.5¢	$32.7	$37.5	+$4.8
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Downavg 47.8¢	$113.03	$112.43	-$0.6	58% 3639-2637 (6276)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 43¢	$12.9	$11.55	-$1.35	47% 2089-2333 (4422)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 48¢	$5.76	$5.76	-$0	42% 1702-2303 (4005)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 51¢	$5.1	$5	-$0.1	50% 817-809 (1626)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 41¢	$4.1	$5	+$0.9	54% 2350-2009 (4359)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.63	+$0.42	44% 2099-2693 (4792)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$502.76

Value

$499.08

PnL

+$1.62

Record

54%

3546-3013 (6559)

Both legs:

Down$252.7650.1¢+$57.67

Up$24550¢-$56.05

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Down

Invested

$159.6

Value

$184.44

PnL

+$24.84

Record

51%

3203-3131 (6334)

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Invested

$217.63

Value

$173.58

PnL

-$44.05

Record

50%

502-503 (1005)

Both legs:

Up$184.9351¢-$48.85

Down$32.754.5¢+$4.8

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Down

Invested

$113.03

Value

$112.43

PnL

-$0.6

Record

58%

3639-2637 (6276)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$12.9

Value

$11.55

PnL

-$1.35

Record

47%

2089-2333 (4422)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$5.76

Value

$5.76

PnL

-$0

Record

42%

1702-2303 (4005)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$5.1

Value

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

817-809 (1626)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.1

Value

PnL

+$0.9

Record

54%

2350-2009 (4359)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$0.42

Record

44%

2099-2693 (4792)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 46%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Up 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.