Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 7 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

7 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Down (32%) · Down at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 32%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$476.12

Smart Money Entry

40.5¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 22 top traders (32%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,906

Combined PnL-$457.67

Up15 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,854

Combined PnL-$18.46

Down — 32%Up — 68%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AS aswfadq1555CTR	Downavg 39.1¢	$956.05	$822.62	-$133.44	50% 502-503 (1005)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 60.2¢	$842.26	$773.28	-$68.98	51% 3203-3131 (6334)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 49.9¢	$504.6	$500	+$0.8	54% 3546-3013 (6559)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 62.9¢	$326.08	$328.31	+$82.22	58% 3639-2637 (6276)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$286.37	$289.12	+$2.75	98% 3774-79 (3853)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Downavg 49.3¢	$68.95	$67.9	-$1.05	48% 1266-1353 (2619)
BO bosona<$100	Upavg 99.6¢	$89.16	$60	-$29.16	51% 4672-4495 (9167)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 75.8¢	$176.69	$50.9	+$27.07	52% 2212-2063 (4275)
AL almach<$100	Upavg 99.6¢	$70.23	$46.78	-$23.45	51% 1428-1364 (2792)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 76.8¢	$47.68	$35.46	-$0.05	54% 2350-2009 (4359)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 49¢	$23.73	$30.06	+$6.33	59% 3720-2542 (6262)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 64¢	$19.2	$29.99	+$10.79	47% 2089-2333 (4422)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 55.2¢	$27.6	$25	-$2.6	51% 1914-1874 (3788)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 79.2¢	$44.25	$24.94	-$14.12	47% 2188-2425 (4613)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 63.2¢	$25.5	$24.34	-$0.35	43% 1206-1573 (2779)
0X 0x50f7<$100	Upavg 99.9¢	$24.29	$24.3	+$0.01	52% 1395-1293 (2688)
MO mo-money<$100	Upavg 99.6¢	$24.54	$15.09	-$9.45	51% 1417-1386 (2803)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 45.5¢	$4.55	$5	+$0.45	49% 1545-1582 (3127)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 41¢	$2.46	$3	+$0.54	42% 1702-2303 (4005)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 46.9¢	$313.93	$0.33	-$313.59	49% 2276-2326 (4602)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 4.8¢	$8.86	$0.09	-$8.77	44% 2099-2693 (4792)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 4¢	$2.1	$0.03	-$2.07	48% 2150-2369 (4519)

aswfadq1555CTR

Down

Invested

$956.05

Value

$822.62

PnL

-$133.44

Record

50%

502-503 (1005)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$842.26

Value

$773.28

PnL

-$68.98

Record

51%

3203-3131 (6334)

ByteBadger92CTR

Down

Invested

$504.6

Value

$500

PnL

+$0.8

Record

54%

3546-3013 (6559)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$326.08

Value

$328.31

PnL

+$82.22

Record

58%

3639-2637 (6276)

hoodquant

Invested

$286.37

Value

$289.12

PnL

+$2.75

Record

98%

3774-79 (3853)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$68.95

Value

$67.9

PnL

-$1.05

Record

48%

1266-1353 (2619)

bosona<$100

Invested

$89.16

Value

$60

PnL

-$29.16

Record

51%

4672-4495 (9167)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$176.69

Value

$50.9

PnL

+$27.07

Record

52%

2212-2063 (4275)

almach<$100

Invested

$70.23

Value

$46.78

PnL

-$23.45

Record

51%

1428-1364 (2792)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$47.68

Value

$35.46

PnL

-$0.05

Record

54%

2350-2009 (4359)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$23.73

Value

$30.06

PnL

+$6.33

Record

59%

3720-2542 (6262)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$19.2

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$10.79

Record

47%

2089-2333 (4422)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$27.6

Value

$25

PnL

-$2.6

Record

51%

1914-1874 (3788)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$44.25

Value

$24.94

PnL

-$14.12

Record

47%

2188-2425 (4613)

13897651<$100

Invested

$25.5

Value

$24.34

PnL

-$0.35

Record

43%

1206-1573 (2779)

0x50f7<$100

Invested

$24.29

Value

$24.3

PnL

+$0.01

Record

52%

1395-1293 (2688)

mo-money<$100

Invested

$24.54

Value

$15.09

PnL

-$9.45

Record

51%

1417-1386 (2803)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.55

Value

PnL

+$0.45

Record

49%

1545-1582 (3127)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$2.46

Value

PnL

+$0.54

Record

42%

1702-2303 (4005)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$313.93

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$313.59

Record

49%

2276-2326 (4602)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.86

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$8.77

Record

44%

2099-2693 (4792)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.1

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.07

Record

48%

2150-2369 (4519)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 22 top traders (32%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.