Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
21
Down 67%
2 arb excluded
$2.5K
$264.02
Smart Money Signal
15 of 21 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 70.9¢ | $849.99 | $1.2K | +$349.3 | 49% 2276-2326 (4602) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.6¢ | $512.96 | $498.31 | +$6.48 | 54% 3546-3013 (6559) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $247.45 | — | -$247.3 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.6¢ | $251.99 | $498.31 | +$253.78 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 81.2¢ | $470.21 | $496.39 | +$85.42 | 51% 3203-3131 (6334) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 81.9¢ | $74.56 | $70 | +$2.19 | 52% 2212-2063 (4275) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 81.9¢ | $57.35 | $70 | +$15.3 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.8¢ | $13.11 | — | -$13.11 | |
AA aaa221 | Downavg 84.6¢ | $118.28 | $98.04 | +$1.02 | 59% 3720-2542 (6262) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 73.2¢ | $31.11 | $32.25 | +$1.14 | 54% 2350-2009 (4359) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $10.95 | $15 | +$4.05 | 71% 1607-666 (2273) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $11.19 | $13.65 | +$2.46 | 48% 2150-2369 (4519) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $13.73 | $28.03 | +$14.3 | 48% 1266-1353 (2619) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 92.8¢ | $10.38 | $11.19 | +$0.81 | 50% 2427-2459 (4886) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $8.6 | $8.81 | +$0.21 | 47% 2188-2425 (4613) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $4.4 | $10 | +$5.6 | 44% 2099-2693 (4792) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 45.5¢ | $9.1 | $20 | +$10.9 | 50% 817-809 (1626) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $8.8 | $20 | +$11.2 | 47% 2089-2333 (4422) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.1 | — | -$0.1 | 37% 1362-2297 (3659) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR | Upavg 24.7¢ | $184.95 | — | -$184.95 | 50% 502-503 (1005) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Upavg 1.5¢ | $1.17 | — | -$1.17 | 43% 1206-1573 (2779) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 14.5¢ | $6.63 | — | -$6.63 | 46% 2814-3341 (6155) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 5.9¢ | $37.77 | — | -$116.66 | 42% 1702-2303 (4005) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $14.7 | $0.01 | +$15.3 | 51% 1417-1386 (2803) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Upavg 18.2¢ | $82.95 | — | +$40.65 | 58% 3639-2637 (6276) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $14.4 | $0.01 | +$15.6 | 51% 1428-1364 (2792) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $14.41 | $0 | +$15.58 | 51% 4672-4495 (9167) |
Invested
$849.99
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$349.3
Record
49%
2276-2326 (4602)
Invested
$512.96
Value
$498.31
PnL
+$6.48
Record
54%
3546-3013 (6559)
Both legs:
Invested
$470.21
Value
$496.39
PnL
+$85.42
Record
51%
3203-3131 (6334)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$74.56
Value
$70
PnL
+$2.19
Record
52%
2212-2063 (4275)
Both legs:
Invested
$118.28
Value
$98.04
PnL
+$1.02
Record
59%
3720-2542 (6262)
Invested
$31.11
Value
$32.25
PnL
+$1.14
Record
54%
2350-2009 (4359)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$10.95
Value
$15
PnL
+$4.05
Record
71%
1607-666 (2273)
Invested
$11.19
Value
$13.65
PnL
+$2.46
Record
48%
2150-2369 (4519)
Invested
$13.73
Value
$28.03
PnL
+$14.3
Record
48%
1266-1353 (2619)
Invested
$10.38
Value
$11.19
PnL
+$0.81
Record
50%
2427-2459 (4886)
Invested
$8.6
Value
$8.81
PnL
+$0.21
Record
47%
2188-2425 (4613)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$4.4
Value
$10
PnL
+$5.6
Record
44%
2099-2693 (4792)
Invested
$9.1
Value
$20
PnL
+$10.9
Record
50%
817-809 (1626)
ohioism<$100Invested
$8.8
Value
$20
PnL
+$11.2
Record
47%
2089-2333 (4422)
Invested
$0.1
Value
—
PnL
-$0.1
Record
37%
1362-2297 (3659)
Invested
$184.95
Value
—
PnL
-$184.95
Record
50%
502-503 (1005)
Invested
$1.17
Value
—
PnL
-$1.17
Record
43%
1206-1573 (2779)
Invested
$6.63
Value
—
PnL
-$6.63
Record
46%
2814-3341 (6155)
Invested
$37.77
Value
—
PnL
-$116.66
Record
42%
1702-2303 (4005)
Invested
$14.7
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$15.3
Record
51%
1417-1386 (2803)
Invested
$82.95
Value
—
PnL
+$40.65
Record
58%
3639-2637 (6276)
Invested
$14.4
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$15.6
Record
51%
1428-1364 (2792)
Invested
$14.41
Value
$0
PnL
+$15.58
Record
51%
4672-4495 (9167)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
Down — $1.2K
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $496.39
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aaa221
Down — $98.04
ply-pm2
Down — $32.25
BoneOhio
Down — $15
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $13.65
PBot-5
Down — $28.03
dvasdkasodk
Down — $11.19