Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Down (89%) · Down at 82¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Up19¢Down81¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 89%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$113.67

Smart Money Entry

70.2¢ → 81.5¢

+16% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 9 top traders (89%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up19%

Down82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,524

Combined PnL+$173.3

Up1 trader

Total Value$89.46

Total Shares617

Combined PnL-$59.64

Down — 89%Up — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 66.1¢	$512.51	$631.76	+$119.25	51% 3173-3101 (6274)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.6¢	$507.9	$507.95	+$0.05	54% 3514-2992 (6506)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.6¢	$257.9	$405.45	+$147.55
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$102.5	-$147.5
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 76.4¢	$448	$477.88	+$29.88	50% 2267-2294 (4561)
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Upavg 34.8¢	$204.65	$124.25	-$80.4	50% 499-500 (999)
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.8¢	$181.83	$96.52	-$85.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.1¢	$22.83	$27.73	+$4.9
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR	Upavg 24.2¢	$149.1	$89.46	-$59.64	42% 1686-2284 (3970)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 58.9¢	$58.4	$63.82	+$13.32	58% 3629-2629 (6258)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 62.7¢	$24.78	$32.59	+$7.81	48% 2176-2405 (4581)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 76¢	$30.83	$30.81	-$0.01	59% 3698-2531 (6229)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 84.4¢	$21.1	$20.63	-$0.48	48% 2136-2349 (4485)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 54¢	$4.76	$6.3	+$1.54	43% 1196-1570 (2766)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 81¢	$27.36	$4.65	+$1.99	54% 2335-1997 (4332)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$512.51

Value

$631.76

PnL

+$119.25

Record

51%

3173-3101 (6274)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$507.9

Value

$507.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

3514-2992 (6506)

Both legs:

Down$257.950.6¢+$147.55

Up$25050¢-$147.5

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$448

Value

$477.88

PnL

+$29.88

Record

50%

2267-2294 (4561)

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Invested

$204.65

Value

$124.25

PnL

-$80.4

Record

50%

499-500 (999)

Both legs:

Up$181.8334.8¢-$85.3

Down$22.8367.1¢+$4.9

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR

Invested

$149.1

Value

$89.46

PnL

-$59.64

Record

42%

1686-2284 (3970)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Down

Invested

$58.4

Value

$63.82

PnL

+$13.32

Record

58%

3629-2629 (6258)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$24.78

Value

$32.59

PnL

+$7.81

Record

48%

2176-2405 (4581)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$30.83

Value

$30.81

PnL

-$0.01

Record

59%

3698-2531 (6229)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$21.1

Value

$20.63

PnL

-$0.48

Record

48%

2136-2349 (4485)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$4.76

Value

$6.3

PnL

+$1.54

Record

43%

1196-1570 (2766)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$27.36

Value

$4.65

PnL

+$1.99

Record

54%

2335-1997 (4332)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 9 top traders (89%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.5%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.