Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Down (54%) · Down at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Up2¢Down98¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$134.95

Smart Money Entry

91.8¢ → 98.5¢

+7% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up2%

Down99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,255

Combined PnL+$31.61

Up6 traders

Total Value$518.34

Total Shares920

Combined PnL-$166.56

Down — 54%Up — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$4.98	98% 3730-79 (3809)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50.2¢	$516.93	$494.59	-$2.18	54% 3514-2992 (6506)
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Upavg 51.9¢	$474.19	$405.37	+$4.08	50% 499-500 (999)
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.6¢	$109.41	$317.56	+$241.55
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.9¢	$325.28	$87.81	-$237.47
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 45.9¢	$37.09	$47.9	+$19.06	52% 2196-2051 (4247)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 47.2¢	$32.33	$35.16	+$2.84	43% 1196-1570 (2766)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 37¢	$22.46	$31.27	+$8.81	48% 2136-2349 (4485)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 53.3¢	$18.24	$25.29	+$7.05	47% 2079-2312 (4391)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 66.9¢	$60.12	$23.76	-$1.26	54% 2335-1997 (4332)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$11.4	$13.9	+$2.5	48% 2176-2405 (4581)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Upavg 45.3¢	$172.97	$5.73	-$167.25	58% 3629-2629 (6258)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 49¢	$4.8	$4.9	+$0.1	50% 1907-1871 (3778)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 30.4¢	$3.65	$3.96	+$0.31	44% 2080-2676 (4756)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.06	$0.09	+$0.03	42% 1686-2284 (3970)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	$0.08	+$0.02	37% 1353-2279 (3632)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,063.09

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$4.98

Record

98%

3730-79 (3809)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$516.93

Value

$494.59

PnL

-$2.18

Record

54%

3514-2992 (6506)

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Invested

$474.19

Value

$405.37

PnL

+$4.08

Record

50%

499-500 (999)

Both legs:

Down$109.4129.6¢+$241.55

Up$325.2851.9¢-$237.47

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$37.09

Value

$47.9

PnL

+$19.06

Record

52%

2196-2051 (4247)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$32.33

Value

$35.16

PnL

+$2.84

Record

43%

1196-1570 (2766)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$22.46

Value

$31.27

PnL

+$8.81

Record

48%

2136-2349 (4485)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$18.24

Value

$25.29

PnL

+$7.05

Record

47%

2079-2312 (4391)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$60.12

Value

$23.76

PnL

-$1.26

Record

54%

2335-1997 (4332)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$11.4

Value

$13.9

PnL

+$2.5

Record

48%

2176-2405 (4581)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Invested

$172.97

Value

$5.73

PnL

-$167.25

Record

58%

3629-2629 (6258)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

1907-1871 (3778)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$3.65

Value

$3.96

PnL

+$0.31

Record

44%

2080-2676 (4756)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.09

PnL

+$0.03

Record

42%

1686-2284 (3970)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.08

PnL

+$0.02

Record

37%

1353-2279 (3632)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.