Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Up (57%) · Up at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 57%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$40.58

Smart Money Entry

90¢ → 100¢

+11% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$953.63

Total Shares969

Combined PnL+$0.69

Down6 traders

Total Value$879.35

Total Shares1,165

Combined PnL+$39.88

Up — 57%Down — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$667.73	$671.41	+$3.67	98% 3678-79 (3757)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 49.4¢	$502.07	$497.16	-$0.49	54% 3484-2956 (6440)
AS aswfadq1555CTR	Downavg 28.1¢	$300.75	$349.93	+$53.18	50% 493-498 (991)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 83.1¢	$349.59	$149.52	-$16.01	58% 3619-2623 (6242)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 60.2¢	$50.7	$50.49	-$0.21	43% 1190-1559 (2749)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 61.3¢	$42.47	$40.56	-$1.91	54% 2316-1981 (4297)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 44.2¢	$11.05	$24.99	+$13.94	44% 2059-2654 (4713)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$15	$15	+$0	52% 2184-2035 (4219)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 46.5¢	$10.12	$10.67	+$0.55	47% 2060-2289 (4349)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 46¢	$11.5	$10.63	-$0.88	48% 2157-2382 (4539)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 24.7¢	$8.65	$6.48	-$2.17	48% 2113-2329 (4442)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 68¢	$4.55	$5.15	+$0.6	50% 2392-2413 (4805)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 35¢	$0.77	$0.84	+$0.07	59% 3675-2516 (6191)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 31¢	$9.92	$0.16	-$9.76	50% 2249-2257 (4506)

hoodquant

Invested

$667.73

Value

$671.41

PnL

+$3.67

Record

98%

3678-79 (3757)

ByteBadger92CTR

Down

Invested

$502.07

Value

$497.16

PnL

-$0.49

Record

54%

3484-2956 (6440)

aswfadq1555CTR

Down

Invested

$300.75

Value

$349.93

PnL

+$53.18

Record

50%

493-498 (991)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$349.59

Value

$149.52

PnL

-$16.01

Record

58%

3619-2623 (6242)

13897651<$100

Invested

$50.7

Value

$50.49

PnL

-$0.21

Record

43%

1190-1559 (2749)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$42.47

Value

$40.56

PnL

-$1.91

Record

54%

2316-1981 (4297)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$11.05

Value

$24.99

PnL

+$13.94

Record

44%

2059-2654 (4713)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15

Value

$15

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

2184-2035 (4219)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$10.12

Value

$10.67

PnL

+$0.55

Record

47%

2060-2289 (4349)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.5

Value

$10.63

PnL

-$0.88

Record

48%

2157-2382 (4539)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.65

Value

$6.48

PnL

-$2.17

Record

48%

2113-2329 (4442)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$4.55

Value

$5.15

PnL

+$0.6

Record

50%

2392-2413 (4805)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$0.77

Value

$0.84

PnL

+$0.07

Record

59%

3675-2516 (6191)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.92

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$9.76

Record

50%

2249-2257 (4506)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.