Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
18
Down 72%
2 arb excluded
$4.8K
-$874.89
Smart Money Signal
13 of 18 top traders (72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 66.5¢ | $2.4K | $2.0K | -$442.58 | 51% 3138-3071 (6209) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $819.86 | $1.0K | +$226.55 | 50% 2249-2257 (4506) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.2¢ | $348.47 | — | -$348.47 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45¢ | $471.39 | $1.0K | +$575.02 | |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Upavg 32.8¢ | $724.7 | $607.9 | -$116.8 | 50% 493-498 (991) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.8¢ | $357.3 | $607.9 | +$250.59 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 32.8¢ | $367.39 | — | -$367.39 | |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 48.4¢ | $533.77 | — | -$475.61 | 54% 3484-2956 (6440) |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 56.5¢ | $359.18 | $351.05 | +$14.54 | 54% 2316-1981 (4297) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $224.73 | $227 | +$2.27 | 98% 3678-79 (3757) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 65.2¢ | $173.01 | $224.2 | +$55.69 | 58% 3619-2623 (6242) |
13 13897651 | Downavg 54.5¢ | $143.74 | $147.96 | +$4.22 | 43% 1190-1559 (2749) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 81.5¢ | $72.7 | $65 | -$7.65 | 44% 2059-2654 (4713) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 64.4¢ | $71.53 | $78.28 | +$6.75 | 48% 2113-2329 (4442) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 71.7¢ | $25.1 | $35 | +$9.9 | 47% 2060-2289 (4349) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 73.4¢ | $60.3 | $35 | -$5.95 | 52% 2184-2035 (4219) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 24¢ | $4.8 | $20 | +$15.2 | 48% 2157-2382 (4539) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $15.9 | — | -$15.9 | 51% 4643-4484 (9127) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $15.3 | — | -$15.3 | 50% 1389-1374 (2763) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $15.3 | — | -$15.3 | 51% 1399-1354 (2753) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $13.85 | $15.05 | +$1.2 | 49% 1520-1565 (3085) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $2.94 | $6 | +$3.06 | 42% 1669-2262 (3931) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $5 | +$2.45 | 48% 1242-1334 (2576) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 8.1¢ | $11.89 | — | -$11.89 | 50% 2392-2413 (4805) |
Invested
$2,408.67
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$442.58
Record
51%
3138-3071 (6209)
Invested
$819.86
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$226.55
Record
50%
2249-2257 (4506)
Both legs:
Invested
$724.7
Value
$607.9
PnL
-$116.8
Record
50%
493-498 (991)
Both legs:
Invested
$533.77
Value
—
PnL
-$475.61
Record
54%
3484-2956 (6440)
Invested
$359.18
Value
$351.05
PnL
+$14.54
Record
54%
2316-1981 (4297)
Invested
$224.73
Value
$227
PnL
+$2.27
Record
98%
3678-79 (3757)
Invested
$173.01
Value
$224.2
PnL
+$55.69
Record
58%
3619-2623 (6242)
Invested
$143.74
Value
$147.96
PnL
+$4.22
Record
43%
1190-1559 (2749)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$72.7
Value
$65
PnL
-$7.65
Record
44%
2059-2654 (4713)
Invested
$71.53
Value
$78.28
PnL
+$6.75
Record
48%
2113-2329 (4442)
ohioism<$100Invested
$25.1
Value
$35
PnL
+$9.9
Record
47%
2060-2289 (4349)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$60.3
Value
$35
PnL
-$5.95
Record
52%
2184-2035 (4219)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$20
PnL
+$15.2
Record
48%
2157-2382 (4539)
Invested
$15.9
Value
—
PnL
-$15.9
Record
51%
4643-4484 (9127)
Invested
$15.3
Value
—
PnL
-$15.3
Record
50%
1389-1374 (2763)
Invested
$15.3
Value
—
PnL
-$15.3
Record
51%
1399-1354 (2753)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$13.85
Value
$15.05
PnL
+$1.2
Record
49%
1520-1565 (3085)
Invested
$2.94
Value
$6
PnL
+$3.06
Record
42%
1669-2262 (3931)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.45
Record
48%
1242-1334 (2576)
Invested
$11.89
Value
—
PnL
-$11.89
Record
50%
2392-2413 (4805)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $2.0K
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
Down — $351.05
hoodquant
Down — $227
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $224.2
13897651
Down — $147.96
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $65
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $78.28