Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
12
Down 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
$122.87
Smart Money Signal
9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.7¢ | $509.52 | $495 | +$1.05 | 54% 3484-2956 (6440) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9¢ | $425.62 | $430.15 | +$4.53 | 98% 3678-79 (3757) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 67.2¢ | $256.72 | $364.71 | +$108 | 51% 3138-3071 (6209) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 90.3¢ | $176.08 | $195 | +$18.92 | 58% 3619-2623 (6242) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Upavg 28.6¢ | $275.69 | $25.96 | -$249.73 | 50% 493-498 (991) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 91.8¢ | $23.83 | $25.96 | +$2.13 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.6¢ | $251.85 | — | -$251.85 | |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 76.7¢ | $20.39 | $20.56 | +$2.16 | 43% 1190-1559 (2749) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $36.76 | $20 | +$1.9 | 54% 2316-1981 (4297) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $16.53 | $19 | +$2.47 | 48% 2113-2329 (4442) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 80.7¢ | $27.67 | $15 | -$0.7 | 52% 2184-2035 (4219) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $8.8 | $10 | +$1.2 | 48% 2157-2382 (4539) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.55 | — | -$0.55 | 37% 1347-2255 (3602) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $3.73 | — | -$3.73 | 46% 2743-3256 (5999) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $12.38 | — | -$12.38 | 42% 1669-2262 (3931) |
Invested
$509.52
Value
$495
PnL
+$1.05
Record
54%
3484-2956 (6440)
Invested
$425.62
Value
$430.15
PnL
+$4.53
Record
98%
3678-79 (3757)
Invested
$256.72
Value
$364.71
PnL
+$108
Record
51%
3138-3071 (6209)
Invested
$176.08
Value
$195
PnL
+$18.92
Record
58%
3619-2623 (6242)
Invested
$275.69
Value
$25.96
PnL
-$249.73
Record
50%
493-498 (991)
Both legs:
Invested
$20.39
Value
$20.56
PnL
+$2.16
Record
43%
1190-1559 (2749)
Invested
$36.76
Value
$20
PnL
+$1.9
Record
54%
2316-1981 (4297)
Invested
$16.53
Value
$19
PnL
+$2.47
Record
48%
2113-2329 (4442)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$27.67
Value
$15
PnL
-$0.7
Record
52%
2184-2035 (4219)
Invested
$8.8
Value
$10
PnL
+$1.2
Record
48%
2157-2382 (4539)
Invested
$0.55
Value
—
PnL
-$0.55
Record
37%
1347-2255 (3602)
Invested
$3.73
Value
—
PnL
-$3.73
Record
46%
2743-3256 (5999)
Invested
$12.38
Value
—
PnL
-$12.38
Record
42%
1669-2262 (3931)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
Down — $495
hoodquant
Down — $430.15
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $364.71
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $195
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
13897651
Down — $20.56
ply-pm2
Down — $20
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $19
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $15
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $10