Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

8 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Down (50%) · Down at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$8.49

Smart Money Entry

75.6¢ → 100¢

+32% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 16 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,139

Combined PnL+$38.35

Up8 traders

Total Value$427.23

Total Shares832

Combined PnL-$29.86

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$496.55	+$0.15	54% 3449-2937 (6386)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$327.5	+$77.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$245	$169.05	-$77.35
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 55.9¢	$447.15	$434.64	+$8.83	51% 3103-3041 (6144)
AS aswfadq1555CTR	Upavg 33.9¢	$380.46	$383.99	+$5.93	50% 488-495 (983)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.3¢	$352.04	$357.82	+$5.78	98% 3651-75 (3726)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 79.4¢	$90.73	$105.4	+$14.68	58% 3610-2614 (6224)
0X 0x50f7<$100	Downavg 99.9¢	$92.91	$92.54	-$0.37	52% 1374-1272 (2646)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 69.5¢	$64.53	$61.3	-$3.23	54% 2295-1973 (4268)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 47.4¢	$16.47	$29.4	+$12.93	47% 2042-2277 (4319)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 36.4¢	$41.26	$27.78	-$11.98	43% 1179-1556 (2735)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 55¢	$22	$20	-$2	50% 1880-1856 (3736)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 29.5¢	$30.76	$10.38	+$0.78	52% 2174-2029 (4203)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Downavg 58¢	$6.96	$8.7	+$1.74	42% 1643-2244 (3887)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 51¢	$3.73	$3.66	-$0.07	46% 2702-3200 (5902)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 28¢	$1.4	$1.38	-$0.02	50% 2368-2397 (4765)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 13.9¢	$8.64	$0.03	-$8.61	50% 2231-2229 (4460)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Upavg 45¢	$15.75	$0.02	-$15.73	48% 1230-1322 (2552)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.15	$0.01	-$0.14	44% 2041-2641 (4682)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$496.55

PnL

+$0.15

Record

54%

3449-2937 (6386)

Both legs:

Up$25050¢+$77.5

Down$24550¢-$77.35

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$447.15

Value

$434.64

PnL

+$8.83

Record

51%

3103-3041 (6144)

aswfadq1555CTR

Invested

$380.46

Value

$383.99

PnL

+$5.93

Record

50%

488-495 (983)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$352.04

Value

$357.82

PnL

+$5.78

Record

98%

3651-75 (3726)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$90.73

Value

$105.4

PnL

+$14.68

Record

58%

3610-2614 (6224)

0x50f7<$100

Down

Invested

$92.91

Value

$92.54

PnL

-$0.37

Record

52%

1374-1272 (2646)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$64.53

Value

$61.3

PnL

-$3.23

Record

54%

2295-1973 (4268)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$16.47

Value

$29.4

PnL

+$12.93

Record

47%

2042-2277 (4319)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$41.26

Value

$27.78

PnL

-$11.98

Record

43%

1179-1556 (2735)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$22

Value

$20

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

1880-1856 (3736)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$30.76

Value

$10.38

PnL

+$0.78

Record

52%

2174-2029 (4203)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Down

Invested

$6.96

Value

$8.7

PnL

+$1.74

Record

42%

1643-2244 (3887)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$3.73

Value

$3.66

PnL

-$0.07

Record

46%

2702-3200 (5902)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.38

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

2368-2397 (4765)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$8.64

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$8.61

Record

50%

2231-2229 (4460)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Invested

$15.75

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$15.73

Record

48%

1230-1322 (2552)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.14

Record

44%

2041-2641 (4682)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 16 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.