Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
18
Down 47%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$-1.9K
Smart Money Signal
9 of 18 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS aswfadq1555CTR | Downavg 71.6¢ | $810.62 | — | -$810.62 | 50% 488-495 (983) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 61.2¢ | $569.81 | — | -$529.94 | 50% 2231-2229 (4460) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Downavg 58.9¢ | $425.03 | — | -$425.03 | 51% 3103-3041 (6144) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.2¢ | $510.49 | $490.01 | +$15.31 | 54% 3449-2937 (6386) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.9¢ | $239.72 | $490.01 | +$254.11 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.2¢ | $246.06 | — | -$238.8 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.6¢ | $149.22 | $151.33 | +$2.11 | 98% 3651-75 (3726) |
PL ply-pm2 | Upavg 54.9¢ | $177.33 | $110.87 | +$8.47 | 54% 2295-1973 (4268) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 19¢ | $43.1 | $115 | +$71.9 | 47% 2092-2317 (4409) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 83.6¢ | $91.01 | — | -$89.11 | 59% 3649-2497 (6146) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Downavg 40.4¢ | $74.78 | — | -$74.78 | 43% 1179-1556 (2735) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 18.5¢ | $11.1 | $60 | +$48.9 | 47% 2042-2277 (4319) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Upavg 57.2¢ | $34.2 | $59.79 | +$25.59 | 47% 173-196 (369) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 22.8¢ | $11.4 | $50 | +$38.6 | 44% 2041-2641 (4682) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $15.1 | $24.99 | +$9.89 | 52% 2174-2029 (4203) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 15.4¢ | $10.09 | — | -$10.09 | 50% 2368-2397 (4765) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR | Downavg 67¢ | $221.48 | — | -$219.08 | 58% 3610-2614 (6224) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Upavg 29¢ | $1.74 | $6 | +$4.26 | 42% 1643-2244 (3887) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $3.58 | — | -$3.58 | 50% 794-790 (1584) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 13¢ | $1.64 | $10 | +$8.36 | 47% 2135-2370 (4505) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $4.67 | — | +$0.45 | 46% 2702-3200 (5902) |
Invested
$810.62
Value
—
PnL
-$810.62
Record
50%
488-495 (983)
Invested
$569.81
Value
—
PnL
-$529.94
Record
50%
2231-2229 (4460)
Invested
$425.03
Value
—
PnL
-$425.03
Record
51%
3103-3041 (6144)
Invested
$510.49
Value
$490.01
PnL
+$15.31
Record
54%
3449-2937 (6386)
Both legs:
Invested
$149.22
Value
$151.33
PnL
+$2.11
Record
98%
3651-75 (3726)
Invested
$177.33
Value
$110.87
PnL
+$8.47
Record
54%
2295-1973 (4268)
Invested
$43.1
Value
$115
PnL
+$71.9
Record
47%
2092-2317 (4409)
Invested
$91.01
Value
—
PnL
-$89.11
Record
59%
3649-2497 (6146)
Invested
$74.78
Value
—
PnL
-$74.78
Record
43%
1179-1556 (2735)
ohioism<$100Invested
$11.1
Value
$60
PnL
+$48.9
Record
47%
2042-2277 (4319)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$34.2
Value
$59.79
PnL
+$25.59
Record
47%
173-196 (369)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$11.4
Value
$50
PnL
+$38.6
Record
44%
2041-2641 (4682)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$15.1
Value
$24.99
PnL
+$9.89
Record
52%
2174-2029 (4203)
Invested
$10.09
Value
—
PnL
-$10.09
Record
50%
2368-2397 (4765)
Invested
$221.48
Value
—
PnL
-$219.08
Record
58%
3610-2614 (6224)
Invested
$1.74
Value
$6
PnL
+$4.26
Record
42%
1643-2244 (3887)
Invested
$3.58
Value
—
PnL
-$3.58
Record
50%
794-790 (1584)
Invested
$1.64
Value
$10
PnL
+$8.36
Record
47%
2135-2370 (4505)
Invested
$4.67
Value
—
PnL
+$0.45
Record
46%
2702-3200 (5902)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
aswfadq1555
CTRDown — $0
uninformedfloww
CTRDown — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $151.33
ply-pm2
Up — $110.87
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Up — $115
aaa221
CTRDown — $0
13897651
CTRDown — $0
ohioism
Up — $60