Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET

8 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Up (40%) · Up at 95¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14

Up95¢Down5¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$151.26

Smart Money Entry

89.9¢ → 94.5¢

+5% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 20 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up95%

Down6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,641

Combined PnL-$131.77

Down12 traders

Total Value$629.6

Total Shares1,710

Combined PnL-$19.49

Up — 40%Down — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 90.3¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$135.66	50% 3063-3014 (6077)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 48.4¢	$510.66	$490.7	+$2.3	54% 3405-2902 (6307)
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Downavg 21.1¢	$438.57	$332.87	-$105.69	49% 480-493 (973)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.3¢	$128.46	$200.65	+$72.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 21.1¢	$310.11	$132.22	-$177.89
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 87.9¢	$276.79	$286.65	+$9.86	58% 3596-2603 (6199)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 95¢	$210.85	$218.68	+$7.83	42% 1619-2223 (3842)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 27.9¢	$79.82	$62.48	+$0.45	52% 2159-2014 (4173)
PL ply-pm2	Upavg 94.4¢	$106.26	$50.64	-$4.78	54% 2271-1956 (4227)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 8.4¢	$47.19	$36.53	-$10.66	50% 2222-2217 (4439)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 8.5¢	$16.2	$10.51	-$5.69	43% 2013-2620 (4633)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 88.4¢	$29.51	$9.9	-$10.92	59% 3605-2478 (6083)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 45.7¢	$8.57	$9.39	+$0.81	50% 782-781 (1563)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 7.2¢	$6.42	$8.03	+$1.61	43% 1169-1546 (2715)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 35¢	$5.25	$5.32	+$0.07	47% 2019-2253 (4272)
PB PBot-5<$100	Upavg 40¢	$4	$5	+$1	48% 1211-1300 (2511)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 25.4¢	$11.6	$4.12	-$7.49	47% 2067-2299 (4366)
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100	Downavg 5.4¢	$2.95	$4.07	+$1.11	50% 1358-1358 (2716)
SU suntori<$100	Upavg 49¢	$3.73	$3.81	+$0.08	46% 2679-3158 (5837)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 6¢	$1.8	$2.25	+$0.45	51% 1368-1337 (2705)
BO bosonaCTR<$100	Downavg 6¢	$1.8	$2.25	+$0.45	51% 4610-4467 (9077)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 10.8¢	$4.3	$2.2	-$2.1	47% 2103-2356 (4459)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 9¢	$1.15	$1.15	+$0	50% 2339-2380 (4719)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$2,182.98

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$135.66

Record

50%

3063-3014 (6077)

ByteBadger92CTR

Down

Invested

$510.66

Value

$490.7

PnL

+$2.3

Record

54%

3405-2902 (6307)

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$438.57

Value

$332.87

PnL

-$105.69

Record

49%

480-493 (973)

Both legs:

Up$128.4658.3¢+$72.2

Down$310.1121.1¢-$177.89

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$276.79

Value

$286.65

PnL

+$9.86

Record

58%

3596-2603 (6199)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$210.85

Value

$218.68

PnL

+$7.83

Record

42%

1619-2223 (3842)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$79.82

Value

$62.48

PnL

+$0.45

Record

52%

2159-2014 (4173)

ply-pm2

Invested

$106.26

Value

$50.64

PnL

-$4.78

Record

54%

2271-1956 (4227)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$47.19

Value

$36.53

PnL

-$10.66

Record

50%

2222-2217 (4439)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.2

Value

$10.51

PnL

-$5.69

Record

43%

2013-2620 (4633)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$29.51

Value

$9.9

PnL

-$10.92

Record

59%

3605-2478 (6083)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$8.57

Value

$9.39

PnL

+$0.81

Record

50%

782-781 (1563)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.42

Value

$8.03

PnL

+$1.61

Record

43%

1169-1546 (2715)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.25

Value

$5.32

PnL

+$0.07

Record

47%

2019-2253 (4272)

PBot-5<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$1

Record

48%

1211-1300 (2511)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$11.6

Value

$4.12

PnL

-$7.49

Record

47%

2067-2299 (4366)

mo-moneyCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.95

Value

$4.07

PnL

+$1.11

Record

50%

1358-1358 (2716)

suntori<$100

Invested

$3.73

Value

$3.81

PnL

+$0.08

Record

46%

2679-3158 (5837)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.8

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.45

Record

51%

1368-1337 (2705)

bosonaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.8

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.45

Record

51%

4610-4467 (9077)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.3

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$2.1

Record

47%

2103-2356 (4459)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.15

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2339-2380 (4719)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 20 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.8%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.