Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
17
Down 82%
1 arb excluded
$2.9K
$162.85
Smart Money Signal
14 of 17 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$12.8 | 98% 3591-73 (3664) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $505.2 | $500 | +$2.3 | 54% 3405-2902 (6307) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250.2 | $500 | +$252.3 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 74.8¢ | $306.74 | $392.84 | +$86.1 | 50% 3063-3014 (6077) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 88.4¢ | $572.96 | $381.46 | -$177.33 | 49% 480-493 (973) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 72.5¢ | $194.04 | $267.77 | +$73.73 | 50% 2222-2217 (4439) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 60.2¢ | $171.17 | $101.1 | +$108.13 | 58% 3596-2603 (6199) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 79.7¢ | $57.79 | $27.5 | +$3.27 | 52% 2159-2014 (4173) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $10.6 | $20 | +$9.4 | 47% 2067-2299 (4366) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $15.9 | $30 | +$14.1 | 51% 1368-1337 (2705) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $15.9 | $30 | +$14.1 | 51% 4610-4467 (9077) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $15.9 | $29.99 | +$14.1 | 50% 1358-1358 (2716) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $3.18 | $6 | +$2.82 | 47% 2019-2253 (4272) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $3.73 | $7.46 | +$3.73 | 50% 1856-1838 (3694) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $3.73 | — | -$3.73 | 46% 2679-3158 (5837) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 62.5¢ | $17.54 | $5.99 | +$3.26 | 54% 2271-1956 (4227) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $3.8 | $5 | +$1.2 | 43% 1169-1546 (2715) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.65 | — | -$0.65 | 37% 1330-2218 (3548) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 1.9¢ | $2.18 | — | -$2.18 | 42% 1619-2223 (3842) |
Invested
$1,120.19
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$12.8
Record
98%
3591-73 (3664)
Invested
$505.2
Value
$500
PnL
+$2.3
Record
54%
3405-2902 (6307)
Both legs:
Invested
$306.74
Value
$392.84
PnL
+$86.1
Record
50%
3063-3014 (6077)
Invested
$572.96
Value
$381.46
PnL
-$177.33
Record
49%
480-493 (973)
Invested
$194.04
Value
$267.77
PnL
+$73.73
Record
50%
2222-2217 (4439)
Invested
$171.17
Value
$101.1
PnL
+$108.13
Record
58%
3596-2603 (6199)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$57.79
Value
$27.5
PnL
+$3.27
Record
52%
2159-2014 (4173)
Invested
$10.6
Value
$20
PnL
+$9.4
Record
47%
2067-2299 (4366)
Invested
$15.9
Value
$30
PnL
+$14.1
Record
51%
1368-1337 (2705)
Invested
$15.9
Value
$30
PnL
+$14.1
Record
51%
4610-4467 (9077)
Invested
$15.9
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$14.1
Record
50%
1358-1358 (2716)
ohioism<$100Invested
$3.18
Value
$6
PnL
+$2.82
Record
47%
2019-2253 (4272)
Invested
$3.73
Value
$7.46
PnL
+$3.73
Record
50%
1856-1838 (3694)
Invested
$3.73
Value
—
PnL
-$3.73
Record
46%
2679-3158 (5837)
Invested
$17.54
Value
$5.99
PnL
+$3.26
Record
54%
2271-1956 (4227)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.2
Record
43%
1169-1546 (2715)
Invested
$0.65
Value
—
PnL
-$0.65
Record
37%
1330-2218 (3548)
Invested
$2.18
Value
—
PnL
-$2.18
Record
42%
1619-2223 (3842)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.1K
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $392.84
aswfadq1555
Down — $381.46
uninformedfloww
Down — $267.77
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $101.1
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $27.5
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $20
almach
Down — $30
bosona
Down — $30