Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 35% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
20
Up 37%
2 arb excluded
$3.5K
$-3.3K
Smart Money Signal
7 of 20 top traders (35%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 60¢ | $3.3K | — | $-3.3K | 50% 3063-3014 (6077) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 47.8¢ | $822.16 | $1.0K | +$230.6 | 50% 2222-2217 (4439) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 60.2¢ | $834.9 | $997.67 | +$214.62 | 49% 480-493 (973) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 47.5¢ | $568.84 | $496 | +$26.68 | 54% 3405-2902 (6307) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.5¢ | $242.4 | — | -$235.75 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.7¢ | $241.51 | $496 | +$262.43 | |
PL ply-pm2CTR | Upavg 51.8¢ | $353.84 | — | -$244.03 | 54% 2271-1956 (4227) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $238.59 | $241 | +$2.41 | 98% 3591-73 (3664) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 58.5¢ | $119.01 | $110 | -$2.22 | 52% 2159-2014 (4173) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 95.9¢ | $136.77 | $118.46 | -$18.31 | 50% 1856-1838 (3694) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 49.8¢ | $65.28 | $104.28 | +$39 | 43% 2013-2620 (4633) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 43.9¢ | $75.14 | $86.6 | +$15.36 | 47% 2067-2299 (4366) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR | Upavg 47.3¢ | $348.67 | — | -$182.12 | 58% 3596-2603 (6199) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100 | Downavg 48.4¢ | $61.8 | $89.6 | +$27.8 | 47% 2103-2356 (4459) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.4¢ | $43.4 | $89.6 | +$46.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 26.3¢ | $18.4 | — | -$18.4 | |
AA aaa221 | Downavg 76.5¢ | $100.41 | $106.1 | +$17.44 | 59% 3605-2478 (6083) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Upavg 39.9¢ | $44.62 | — | -$44.62 | 43% 1169-1546 (2715) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 34.7¢ | $22.6 | — | -$22.6 | 47% 2019-2253 (4272) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $19.8 | $20 | +$0.2 | 49% 1477-1548 (3025) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $14.98 | $15 | +$0.02 | 52% 1357-1267 (2624) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $17.15 | $35 | +$17.85 | 48% 1211-1300 (2511) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $4.8 | $10 | +$5.2 | 50% 782-781 (1563) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 15¢ | $73 | — | -$73 | 42% 1619-2223 (3842) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 3.9¢ | $10.48 | — | -$10.48 | 50% 2339-2380 (4719) |
SU suntori<$100 | Downavg 37¢ | $5.6 | $0.01 | +$6.51 | 46% 2679-3158 (5837) |
Invested
$3,301.62
Value
—
PnL
$-3.3K
Record
50%
3063-3014 (6077)
Invested
$822.16
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$230.6
Record
50%
2222-2217 (4439)
Invested
$834.9
Value
$997.67
PnL
+$214.62
Record
49%
480-493 (973)
Invested
$568.84
Value
$496
PnL
+$26.68
Record
54%
3405-2902 (6307)
Both legs:
Invested
$353.84
Value
—
PnL
-$244.03
Record
54%
2271-1956 (4227)
Invested
$238.59
Value
$241
PnL
+$2.41
Record
98%
3591-73 (3664)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$119.01
Value
$110
PnL
-$2.22
Record
52%
2159-2014 (4173)
Invested
$136.77
Value
$118.46
PnL
-$18.31
Record
50%
1856-1838 (3694)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$65.28
Value
$104.28
PnL
+$39
Record
43%
2013-2620 (4633)
Invested
$75.14
Value
$86.6
PnL
+$15.36
Record
47%
2067-2299 (4366)
Invested
$348.67
Value
—
PnL
-$182.12
Record
58%
3596-2603 (6199)
Invested
$61.8
Value
$89.6
PnL
+$27.8
Record
47%
2103-2356 (4459)
Both legs:
Invested
$100.41
Value
$106.1
PnL
+$17.44
Record
59%
3605-2478 (6083)
Invested
$44.62
Value
—
PnL
-$44.62
Record
43%
1169-1546 (2715)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$22.6
Value
—
PnL
-$22.6
Record
47%
2019-2253 (4272)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$19.8
Value
$20
PnL
+$0.2
Record
49%
1477-1548 (3025)
Invested
$14.98
Value
$15
PnL
+$0.02
Record
52%
1357-1267 (2624)
Invested
$17.15
Value
$35
PnL
+$17.85
Record
48%
1211-1300 (2511)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$10
PnL
+$5.2
Record
50%
782-781 (1563)
Invested
$73
Value
—
PnL
-$73
Record
42%
1619-2223 (3842)
Invested
$10.48
Value
—
PnL
-$10.48
Record
50%
2339-2380 (4719)
Invested
$5.6
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$6.51
Record
46%
2679-3158 (5837)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $1.0K
aswfadq1555
Down — $997.67
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $241
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $110
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $118.46
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $104.28
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $86.6