Ethereum Up or Down - November 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

13 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Up (62%) · Up at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 62%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$428.1

Smart Money Entry

84.7¢ → 100¢

+18% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 21 top traders (62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up13 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,054

Combined PnL-$97.6

Down8 traders

Total Value$25.02

Total Shares1,488

Combined PnL-$330.5

Up — 62%Down — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.8¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$19.67	98% 3543-73 (3616)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 61.6¢	$925.04	$813.19	-$111.85	50% 3041-2991 (6032)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.9¢	$503.05	$500.4	+$0.52	54% 3373-2881 (6254)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$253.05	$253.39	+$0.34
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$247.01	$247.01	+$0.18
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Downavg 36.9¢	$325.9	$373.88	+$47.98	50% 480-487 (967)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.7¢	$142.46	$291.92	+$149.46
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.9¢	$183.44	$81.96	-$101.48
AA aaa221	Upavg 54.2¢	$94.74	$102.03	+$7.29	59% 3587-2446 (6033)
0X 0x50f7<$100	Upavg 99.9¢	$98.02	$98.07	+$0.05	52% 1352-1265 (2617)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 69.7¢	$58.7	$55.89	+$12.17	52% 2153-1992 (4145)
BO bosona<$100	Upavg 99.6¢	$42.48	$30	-$12.48	51% 4599-4456 (9055)
MO mo-money<$100	Upavg 99.6¢	$43.97	$29.99	-$13.98	50% 1342-1353 (2695)
13 13897651<$100	Upavg 34¢	$18.11	$25.78	+$11.75	43% 1163-1539 (2702)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 56.3¢	$28.15	$25	-$3.15	50% 1846-1828 (3674)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 48.4¢	$12.1	$12.38	+$0.27	47% 1998-2233 (4231)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 99¢	$45.06	$10	-$5.07	54% 2251-1949 (4200)
AL almach<$100	Upavg 99.5¢	$13.2	$9.01	-$4.19	50% 1354-1329 (2683)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 46¢	$7.82	$8.42	+$0.59	47% 2083-2336 (4419)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 33¢	$5.55	$8.07	+$2.52	43% 1993-2596 (4589)
SU suntori<$100	Upavg 55¢	$3.73	$3.39	-$0.34	46% 2653-3138 (5791)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Downavg 58¢	$2.9	$2.6	-$0.3	71% 1551-630 (2181)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 45¢	$0.82	$0.91	+$0.09	50% 770-773 (1543)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 38.1¢	$252.15	$0.33	-$251.82	50% 2196-2203 (4399)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 1.3¢	$7.68	$0.31	-$7.37	42% 1609-2196 (3805)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Downavg 44.4¢	$57.7	$0.07	-$57.64	58% 3585-2599 (6184)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Downavg 41¢	$14.35	$0.02	-$14.33	48% 1194-1295 (2489)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,747.17

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$19.67

Record

98%

3543-73 (3616)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$925.04

Value

$813.19

PnL

-$111.85

Record

50%

3041-2991 (6032)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$503.05

Value

$500.4

PnL

+$0.52

Record

54%

3373-2881 (6254)

Both legs:

Down$253.0549.9¢+$0.34

Up$247.0150¢+$0.18

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$325.9

Value

$373.88

PnL

+$47.98

Record

50%

480-487 (967)

Both legs:

Up$142.4640.7¢+$149.46

Down$183.4436.9¢-$101.48

aaa221

Invested

$94.74

Value

$102.03

PnL

+$7.29

Record

59%

3587-2446 (6033)

0x50f7<$100

Invested

$98.02

Value

$98.07

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

1352-1265 (2617)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$58.7

Value

$55.89

PnL

+$12.17

Record

52%

2153-1992 (4145)

bosona<$100

Invested

$42.48

Value

$30

PnL

-$12.48

Record

51%

4599-4456 (9055)

mo-money<$100

Invested

$43.97

Value

$29.99

PnL

-$13.98

Record

50%

1342-1353 (2695)

13897651<$100

Invested

$18.11

Value

$25.78

PnL

+$11.75

Record

43%

1163-1539 (2702)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$28.15

Value

$25

PnL

-$3.15

Record

50%

1846-1828 (3674)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12.1

Value

$12.38

PnL

+$0.27

Record

47%

1998-2233 (4231)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$45.06

Value

$10

PnL

-$5.07

Record

54%

2251-1949 (4200)

almach<$100

Invested

$13.2

Value

$9.01

PnL

-$4.19

Record

50%

1354-1329 (2683)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.82

Value

$8.42

PnL

+$0.59

Record

47%

2083-2336 (4419)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$5.55

Value

$8.07

PnL

+$2.52

Record

43%

1993-2596 (4589)

suntori<$100

Invested

$3.73

Value

$3.39

PnL

-$0.34

Record

46%

2653-3138 (5791)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$0.3

Record

71%

1551-630 (2181)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.82

Value

$0.91

PnL

+$0.09

Record

50%

770-773 (1543)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$252.15

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$251.82

Record

50%

2196-2203 (4399)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.68

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$7.37

Record

42%

1609-2196 (3805)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$57.7

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$57.64

Record

58%

3585-2599 (6184)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.35

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$14.33

Record

48%

1194-1295 (2489)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 21 top traders (62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.